Tennis · W50 Hamburg · 10/08, 10:00
Prediction: Marie Vogt vs Demi Tran
Team pages: Marie Vogt · Demi Tran
Prediction summary
Winner
Marie Vogt
Demi Tran
Estimated games
19.9
Recent form · 10 last
Marie Vogt
7-3 (W-L)
Demi Tran
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marie Vogt 1553 · Demi Tran 1438
| Marie Vogt | Demi Tran | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 34% |
| Market | 91% | 9% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Marie Vogt (rating 1553 vs 1438).
- Marie Vogt is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Demi Tran makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Marie Vogt | Demi Tran | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | – | 50% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.7 | 0.8-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-8.4 | 8.6-10.5 |
| Aces | 2.5 | 0.2 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 4.3 |
| 1st serve % | 66.3% | 54.3% |
| Break % | 55.4% | 44% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marie Vogt
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Maja Michna W50 Hamburg |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 03/08 | Nellie Taraba Wallberg W75 Leipzig |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 23/07 | Rebecca Munk Mortensen W35 Gentofte |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 22/07 | Ann Akasha Ceuca W35 Gentofte |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 19/07 | Ruth Roura Llaverias W15 Krsko |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 18/07 | Rose Marie Nijkamp W15 Krsko |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 17/07 | Federica Trevisan W15 Krsko |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/07 | Romane Longueville W15 Krsko |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/07 | Maileen Nuudi W15 Krsko |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 06/07 | Zhibek Kulambayeva W75 The Hague |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
Demi Tran
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Georgina Groth W50 Hamburg |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 02/08 | Valentina Ivanov W75 Koksijde |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Laura Hietaranta W100 Gran Canaria |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 27/07 | Gabriela Paun W100 Gran Canaria |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 26/07 | Noemi Maines W100 Gran Canaria |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 21/07 | Anna Shkutova W15 Gran Canaria |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 15/07 | Zoziya Kardava W75 Vitoria Gasteiz |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 08/07 | Valentina Ryser W35 Don Benito |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 24/05 | Irem Kurt W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 23/05 | Ksenia Smirnova W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marie Vogt vs Demi Tran?
Our model gives 80% to Marie Vogt, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.