Tennis · Challenger Astana · 09/08, 08:30
Prediction: Daniil Ostapenkov vs Egor Agafonov
Team pages: Daniil Ostapenkov · Egor Agafonov
Prediction summary
Winner
Daniil Ostapenkov
Egor Agafonov
Estimated games
21.6
Recent form · 10 last
Daniil Ostapenkov
6-4 (W-L)
Egor Agafonov
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daniil Ostapenkov 1518 · Egor Agafonov 1453
| Daniil Ostapenkov | Egor Agafonov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 78% | 22% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Daniil Ostapenkov (rating 1518 vs 1453).
- Daniil Ostapenkov dominates on serve: 6.5 aces and 51.7% break avg.
- Daniil Ostapenkov is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Egor Agafonov makes many double faults (5.7/match).
Statistics
| Daniil Ostapenkov | Egor Agafonov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 57% (7) | 33% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.9 | 0.8-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-11.2 | 9.9-11.1 |
| Aces | 6.5 | 3.9 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 5.7 |
| 1st serve % | 73% | 67.8% |
| Break % | 51.7% | 26.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daniil Ostapenkov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | Florent Bax Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 04/08 | Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 03/08 | Koki Matsuda Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 02/08 | Yurii Dzhavakian Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 03/07 | Tiago Torres M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 02/07 | Lui Maxted M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 30/06 | Rohan Mehra M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 26/06 | Carl Emil Overbeck M25 Porto |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 25/06 | Tiago Pereira M25 Porto |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 24/06 | Guilherme Valdoleiros M25 Porto |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Egor Agafonov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08 | Martin Borisiouk M15 Astana |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 04/06 | Kacper Knitter M15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 28/05 | Ivan Iutkin M15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 27/05 | Dmitrii Burtsev M15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 26/03 | Daniil Sarksian M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 17/03 | Karlis Ozolins M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 12/03 | Maxim Zhukov M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 11/03 | Xing Dao Chen M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 23/02 | Maks Kasnikowski Challenger Pune · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 22/02 | Philip Sekulic Challenger Pune · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daniil Ostapenkov vs Egor Agafonov?
Our model gives 70% to Daniil Ostapenkov, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.