Tennis · Challenger Astana · 11/08, 07:00
Prediction: Sergey Fomin vs Maxim Zhukov
Team pages: Sergey Fomin · Maxim Zhukov
Prediction summary
Winner
Sergey Fomin
Maxim Zhukov
Estimated games
22.1Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Sergey Fomin
6-4 (W-L)
Maxim Zhukov
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Sergey Fomin
2–3
Maxim Zhukov
(5 last)
- 10 Jan0-2 7-12L
- 06 Jul2-0 12-5W
- 18 Apr2-1 17-10W
- 04 Apr0-2 8-12L
- 01 Dec0-2 6-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sergey Fomin 1475 · Maxim Zhukov 1553
| Sergey Fomin | Maxim Zhukov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 71% | 29% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Maxim Zhukov (rating 1475 vs 1553).
- Maxim Zhukov is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Sergey Fomin 2–3 Maxim Zhukov (5).
- Note: Sergey Fomin makes many double faults (5.6/match).
Statistics
| Sergey Fomin | Maxim Zhukov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (1) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.2 | 1.5-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.1-11.5 | 12.3-9.9 |
| Aces | 5.9 | 4 |
| Double faults | 5.6 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 69.3% | 70% |
| Break % | 45.6% | 44.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +1.6
Over 20.5: 61% · 1.83
Under 20.5: 39% · 1.83
H2H · Sergey Fomin 2 – 3 Maxim Zhukov (5)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sergey Fomin 2–3 Maxim Zhukov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/01/25 ITF M25 Bhopal | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 06/07/24 ITF M15 Ust-Kamenogorsk | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 18/04/24 ITF M15 Shymkent | 2-1 | 17-10 | W |
| 04/04/24 M15 Antalya | 0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 01/12/23 M15 Antalya | 0-2 | 6-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sergey Fomin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Giuseppe La Vela Challenger Bonn · Clay |
1-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 21/07 | Yanki Erel Challenger Segovia · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 16/07 | Alberto Lim Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/07 | Bill Chan Davis Cup |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 06/07 | Manas Manoj Dhamne Challenger Liege · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 29/06 | Olle Wallin Challenger Brasov · Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 28/06 | Mircea-Alexandru Jecan Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 23/06 | Max Alcala Gurri Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 26/05 | Sumit Nagal Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 25/05 | Dragos Nicolae Cazacu Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Maxim Zhukov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Kerem Yilmaz Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 29/03 | Matthew Dellavedova M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/03 | Fitriadi M Rifqi M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 27/03 | Hanyi Liu M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 26/03 | Linang Xiao M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 25/03 | Ruslan Serazhetdinov M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 22/03 | Karlis Ozolins M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-11 | L |
| 21/03 | Evgeny Philippov M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 20/03 | Fitriadi M Rifqi M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 19/03 | Linang Xiao M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 8-2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sergey Fomin vs Maxim Zhukov?
Our model gives 57% to Sergey Fomin, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.