Tennis · ATP Montreal · 07/08, 02:30
Prediction: Frances Tiafoe vs Arthur Rinderknech
Team pages: Frances Tiafoe · Arthur Rinderknech
Prediction summary
Winner
Frances Tiafoe
Arthur Rinderknech
Estimated games
30.4
Recent form · 10 last
Frances Tiafoe
7-3 (W-L)
Arthur Rinderknech
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Frances Tiafoe
1–1
Arthur Rinderknech
(2 last)
- 13 Jan3-2 29-25W
- 22 May0-2 10-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Frances Tiafoe 1572 · Arthur Rinderknech 1506
| Frances Tiafoe | Arthur Rinderknech | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Frances Tiafoe (rating 1572 vs 1506).
- Frances Tiafoe dominates on serve: 7.7 aces and 48.6% break avg.
- Frances Tiafoe is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Frances Tiafoe | Arthur Rinderknech | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Win % · Grass | 88% (8) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2.1-0.9 | 1.6-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 16.9-13.1 | 17.1-16 |
| Aces | 7.7 | 17.9 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 79.5% | 81.2% |
| Break % | 48.6% | 33% |
Estimated total games (ours)
30.4
H2H · Frances Tiafoe 1 – 1 Arthur Rinderknech (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Frances Tiafoe 1–1 Arthur Rinderknech
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/01/25 Australian Open | 3-2 | 29-25 | W |
| 22/05/24 ATP Lyon | 0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Frances Tiafoe
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | Marin Cilic ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 28/07 | Terence Atmane ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 04/07 | Alexander Bublik Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 27-28 | L |
| 02/07 | Jan Choinski Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-15 | W |
| 01/07 | Terence Atmane Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-17 | W |
| 21/06 | Taylor Fritz ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 20/06 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/06 | Felix Auger Aliassime ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 17/06 | Sho Shimabukuro ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 15/06 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Arthur Rinderknech
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 22/07 | Sebastian Baez ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 17/07 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 15/07 | Clement Tabur ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 20-18 | W |
| 03/07 | Novak Djokovic Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 21-21 | L |
| 01/07 | Martin Damm Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-13 | W |
| 29/06 | Oliver Tarvet Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 25-23 | W |
| 16/06 | Hamad Medjedovic ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 11/06 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 07/06 | Stan Wawrinka Bonmont Tennis Masters · ~Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Frances Tiafoe vs Arthur Rinderknech?
Our model gives 63% to Frances Tiafoe, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.