Tennis · Challenger Hagen · 06/08, 10:00
Prediction: Matej Dodig vs Lorenzo Giustino
Team pages: Matej Dodig · Lorenzo Giustino
Prediction summary
Winner
Matej Dodig
Lorenzo Giustino
Estimated games
22.8
Recent form · 10 last
Matej Dodig
7-3 (W-L)
Lorenzo Giustino
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Matej Dodig
0–1
Lorenzo Giustino
(1 last)
- 14 Aug1-2 13-17L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matej Dodig 1563 · Lorenzo Giustino 1541
| Matej Dodig | Lorenzo Giustino | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 47% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Matej Dodig dominates on serve: 7.5 aces and 40.8% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Matej Dodig 0–1 Lorenzo Giustino (1).
Statistics
| Matej Dodig | Lorenzo Giustino | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 78% (9) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.8 | 1.5-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.3-10.8 | 12-11.7 |
| Aces | 7.5 | 5 |
| Double faults | 2.2 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 75% | 70.2% |
| Break % | 40.8% | 42.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.8
H2H · Matej Dodig 0 – 1 Lorenzo Giustino (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Matej Dodig 0–1 Lorenzo Giustino
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08/24 Challenger Todi | 1-2 | 13-17 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matej Dodig
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Stefano Travaglia Challenger Hagen · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 03/08 | Oleksii Krutykh Challenger Hagen · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 02/08 | Jannik Opitz Challenger Hagen · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 14/07 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Umag · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 12/07 | Hugo Dellien Challenger Trieste · Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 11/07 | Henri Squire Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 10/07 | Raul Brancaccio Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 08/07 | Michele Ribecai Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 06/07 | Sumit Nagal Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 24/06 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Lorenzo Giustino
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Vitaliy Sachko Challenger Hagen · Clay |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 28/07 | Olle Wallin Challenger Bonn · Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 19/07 | Federico Cina ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 18/07 | Nico Hipfl ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/07 | Franco Roncadelli Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
1-2 | 9-14 | L |
| 12/07 | Florian Broska Challenger Liege · Clay |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 11/07 | Miguel Damas Challenger Liege · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 10/07 | Jack Loge Challenger Liege · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 08/07 | Emilien Demanet Challenger Liege · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 07/07 | Leo Raquillet Challenger Liege · Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matej Dodig vs Lorenzo Giustino?
Our model gives 56% to Matej Dodig, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.