Tennis · W75 Koksijde · 05/08, 11:30
Prediction: Federica Urgesi vs Martha Matoula
Team pages: Federica Urgesi · Martha Matoula
Prediction summary
Winner
Federica Urgesi
Martha Matoula
Estimated games
22.6
Recent form · 10 last
Federica Urgesi
4-6 (W-L)
Martha Matoula
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Federica Urgesi 1501 · Martha Matoula 1514
| Federica Urgesi | Martha Matoula | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 63% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Federica Urgesi | Martha Matoula | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 40% (5) | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.3 | 1.1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.2-11.6 | 10.7-11.6 |
| Aces | 3.2 | 0.8 |
| Double faults | 3.9 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 58.5% | 60.2% |
| Break % | 49.6% | 40% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Federica Urgesi
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Amelie Van Impe W75 Koksijde |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 30/07 | Barbora Palicova W75 Hechingen |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 29/07 | Diana Martynov W75 Hechingen |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 20/07 | Elizara Yaneva WTA Palermo · Clay |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 15/07 | Francesca Jones WTA Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 13/07 | Yelyzaveta Kotliar WTA Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 09/07 | Arantxa Rus W75 The Hague |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 07/07 | Lucija Ciric Bagaric W75 The Hague |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/06 | Katerina Tsygourova W35 Tarvisio · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 09/06 | Tamara Zidansek WTA Modena · Clay |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
Martha Matoula
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Yasmine Mansouri W75 Koksijde |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 31/07 | Irina Balus W50 Knokke-Heist |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 30/07 | Valentina Ivanov W50 Knokke-Heist |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 29/07 | Amelie Van Impe W50 Knokke-Heist |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 22/07 | Gabriela Ce W75 Cordenons |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 21/07 | Maria Garcia Cid W75 Cordenons |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 13/07 | Elena Micic WTA Athens · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 06/07 | Yulia Putintseva WTA Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 21/06 | Selena Janicijevic W50 Haskovo · ~Clay |
1-2 | 9-14 | L |
| 20/06 | Berfu Cengiz W50 Haskovo · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Federica Urgesi vs Martha Matoula?
Our model gives 56% to Federica Urgesi, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.