Tennis · Challenger Hagen · 06/08, 10:00
Prediction: Maxim Mrva vs Guy Den Ouden
Team pages: Maxim Mrva · Guy Den Ouden
Prediction summary
Winner
Maxim Mrva
Guy Den Ouden
Estimated games
22.2
Recent form · 10 last
Maxim Mrva
3-7 (W-L)
Guy Den Ouden
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Maxim Mrva 1511 · Guy Den Ouden 1582
| Maxim Mrva | Guy Den Ouden | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Guy Den Ouden (rating 1511 vs 1582).
- Guy Den Ouden is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Maxim Mrva makes many double faults (4.7/match).
Statistics
| Maxim Mrva | Guy Den Ouden | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 80% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (10) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.2 | 1.6-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-12.1 | 12.1-8.8 |
| Aces | 4.2 | 3.7 |
| Double faults | 4.7 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 69.7% | 72.4% |
| Break % | 42.5% | 45% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Maxim Mrva
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Rudolf Molleker Challenger Hagen · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 03/08 | Nicolas Kicker Challenger Hagen · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/08 | Nick Mertgens Challenger Hagen · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 28/07 | Joel Schwaerzler Challenger Liberec · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/07 | Franco Roncadelli Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 14/07 | Carlo Alberto Caniato Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 09/07 | Federico Bondioli Challenger Trieste · Clay |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 07/07 | Gonzalo Villanueva Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 22/06 | Tommaso Compagnucci Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 17/06 | Gustavo Heide Challenger Poznan · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Guy Den Ouden
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08 | Alexandre Muller Challenger Hagen · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 28/07 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Challenger Bonn · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 19/07 | Tom Gentzsch Challenger Bunschoten · Clay |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 18/07 | Kimmer Coppejans Challenger Bunschoten · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 17/07 | Ryan Nijboer Challenger Bunschoten · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 16/07 | Hynek Barton Challenger Bunschoten · Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 14/07 | Denis Yevseyev Challenger Bunschoten · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 10/07 | Kimmer Coppejans Challenger Liege · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 09/07 | Federico Coria Challenger Liege · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 07/07 | Tsung-Hao Huang Challenger Liege · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Maxim Mrva vs Guy Den Ouden?
Our model gives 63% to Guy Den Ouden, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.