Tennis · WTA Toronto · 05/08, 17:00
Prediction: Shuai Zhang vs Jelena Ostapenko
Team pages: Shuai Zhang · Jelena Ostapenko
Prediction summary
Winner
Shuai Zhang
Jelena Ostapenko
Estimated games
21.1Bet365 line 19.5
Recent form · 10 last
Shuai Zhang
5-5 (W-L)
Jelena Ostapenko
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Shuai Zhang
0–2
Jelena Ostapenko
(2 last)
- 08 Mar0-2 3-12L
- 15 May0-2 7-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Shuai Zhang 1498 · Jelena Ostapenko 1559
| Shuai Zhang | Jelena Ostapenko | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 28% | 72% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jelena Ostapenko (rating 1498 vs 1559).
- Head-to-head: Shuai Zhang 0–2 Jelena Ostapenko (2).
- Note: Jelena Ostapenko makes many double faults (6.3/match).
Statistics
| Shuai Zhang | Jelena Ostapenko | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Grass | 50% (8) | 83% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1 | 1.5-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.6-9.7 | 11.5-8.1 |
| Aces | 1.9 | 5.3 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 6.3 |
| 1st serve % | 65.7% | 74.2% |
| Break % | 40% | 52.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.1 · Bet365 line 19.5 · +1.6
Over 19.5: 61% · 1.80
Under 19.5: 39% · 1.90
H2H · Shuai Zhang 0 – 2 Jelena Ostapenko (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Shuai Zhang 0–2 Jelena Ostapenko
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/19 WTA Indian Wells | 0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 15/05/18 WTA Rome | 0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Shuai Zhang
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08 | Yulia Putintseva WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 25/07 | Gabriela Knutson WTA Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 01/07 | Karolina Muchova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/06 | Bianca Andreescu Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 20/06 | Elena-Gabriela Ruse WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Karolina Muchova WTA Berlin · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Magdalena Frech WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 13/06 | Milena Steinkamp WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/06 | Alexandra Eala WTA Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 07/06 | Heather Watson WTA Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Jelena Ostapenko
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Aryna Sabalenka Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Antonia Ruzic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 29/06 | Harriet Dart Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 25/06 | Zeynep Sonmez WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 24/06 | Panna Udvardy WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 22/06 | Francesca Jones WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 27/05 | Magda Linette French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 25/05 | Ella Seidel French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 12/05 | Sorana Cirstea WTA Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 11/05 | Anna Kalinskaya WTA Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Shuai Zhang vs Jelena Ostapenko?
Our model gives 66% to Jelena Ostapenko, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.