Tennis · Challenger Hagen · 04/08, 14:30
Prediction: Stefano Travaglia vs Matej Dodig
Team pages: Stefano Travaglia · Matej Dodig
Prediction summary
Winner
Stefano Travaglia
Matej Dodig
Estimated games
23.3
Recent form · 10 last
Stefano Travaglia
4-6 (W-L)
Matej Dodig
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Stefano Travaglia
3–0
Matej Dodig
(3 last)
- 21 Mar2-0 13-9W
- 17 Nov2-1 16-15W
- 23 Sept2-0 12-6W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Stefano Travaglia 1505 · Matej Dodig 1549
| Stefano Travaglia | Matej Dodig | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 51% | 49% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Matej Dodig (rating 1505 vs 1549).
- Matej Dodig dominates on serve: 8.1 aces and 43.8% break avg.
- Matej Dodig is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Stefano Travaglia 3–0 Matej Dodig (3).
Statistics
| Stefano Travaglia | Matej Dodig | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 38% (8) | 75% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.2 | 1.5-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.6-11.8 | 12.7-11.8 |
| Aces | 5.7 | 8.1 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 73% | 74.2% |
| Break % | 29.2% | 43.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.3
H2H · Stefano Travaglia 3 – 0 Matej Dodig (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Stefano Travaglia 3–0 Matej Dodig
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 Challenger Zadar | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 17/11/25 Challenger Bergamo | 2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 23/09/25 Challenger Lisbon | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Stefano Travaglia
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07 | Max Hans Rehberg Challenger Bonn · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 17/07 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 15/07 | Mariano Navone ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/07 | Martin Krumich ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 30/06 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 24/06 | Yi Zhou Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 22/06 | Luka Mikrut Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 17/06 | Roberto Carballes Baena Challenger Parma · Clay |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 16/06 | Petr Bar Biryukov Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 02/06 | Pierluigi Basile Challenger Perugia · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
Matej Dodig
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08 | Oleksii Krutykh Challenger Hagen · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 02/08 | Jannik Opitz Challenger Hagen · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 14/07 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Umag · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 12/07 | Hugo Dellien Challenger Trieste · Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 11/07 | Henri Squire Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 10/07 | Raul Brancaccio Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 08/07 | Michele Ribecai Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 06/07 | Sumit Nagal Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 24/06 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 22/06 | Frederico Ferreira Silva Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 17-18 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Stefano Travaglia vs Matej Dodig?
Our model gives 52% to Matej Dodig, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.