Tennis · M25 Tauste · 04/08, 10:00
Prediction: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Pavel Lagutin
Team pages: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez · Pavel Lagutin
Prediction summary
Winner
Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
Pavel Lagutin
Estimated games
21
Recent form · 10 last
Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
4-6 (W-L)
Pavel Lagutin
10-0 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
0–1
Pavel Lagutin
(1 last)
- 08 Aug0-2 9-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mario Gonzalez Fernandez 1464 · Pavel Lagutin 1646
| Mario Gonzalez Fernandez | Pavel Lagutin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 26% | 74% |
| Market | 29% | 71% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pavel Lagutin (rating 1464 vs 1646).
- Pavel Lagutin is in better form: 100% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez 0–1 Pavel Lagutin (1).
Statistics
| Mario Gonzalez Fernandez | Pavel Lagutin | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 100% |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.3 | 1.9-0 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-11.8 | 11.1-4.2 |
| Aces | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 1st serve % | 64.9% | 68.7% |
| Break % | 42.3% | 57% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21
H2H · Mario Gonzalez Fernandez 0 – 1 Pavel Lagutin (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mario Gonzalez Fernandez 0–1 Pavel Lagutin
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/25 ITF M25 Tauste | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | Keegan Smith Challenger Segovia · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 20/07 | Miguel Tobon Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 13/07 | Dominik Palan Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 12/07 | S D Prajwal Dev Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 02/07 | Tiago Torres M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 30/06 | Matthew Summers M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 23/06 | Matisse Bobichon M25 Porto |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 18/06 | Joao Domingues M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 17/06 | Robin Catry M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/06 | Rafael Izquierdo Luque M25 Martos · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Pavel Lagutin
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Carlos Lopez Montagud M15 Xativa |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 01/08 | Eric Vanshelboim M15 Xativa |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 31/07 | Ignacio Parisca Romera M15 Xativa |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/07 | Anas Mazdrashki M15 Xativa |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 29/07 | Brian Bozemoj M15 Xativa |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/07 | Pedro Rodenas M25 Denia |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 25/07 | Carlos Lopez Montagud M25 Denia |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 24/07 | Lorenzo Angelini M25 Denia |
1-0 | 6-2 | W |
| 23/07 | Ignacio Parisca Romera M25 Denia |
2-0 | 7-3 | W |
| 22/07 | Xavier Ferrer Mateo M25 Denia |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Pavel Lagutin?
Our model gives 72% to Pavel Lagutin, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.