Tennis · Challenger Hagen · 04/08, 11:00
Prediction: Guy Den Ouden vs Alexandre Muller
Team pages: Guy Den Ouden · Alexandre Muller
Prediction summary
Winner
Guy Den Ouden
Alexandre Muller
Estimated games
22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Guy Den Ouden
5-5 (W-L)
Alexandre Muller
2-8 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Guy Den Ouden 1574 · Alexandre Muller 1440
| Guy Den Ouden | Alexandre Muller | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 68% | 32% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Guy Den Ouden (rating 1574 vs 1440).
- Guy Den Ouden is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Guy Den Ouden | Alexandre Muller | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 20% |
| Win % · Clay | 78% (9) | 22% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.9 | 0.7-1.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.6-9.3 | 10.1-13.6 |
| Aces | 3.6 | 2.5 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 70.9% | 66.2% |
| Break % | 45% | 28.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Guy Den Ouden
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Challenger Bonn · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 19/07 | Tom Gentzsch Challenger Bunschoten · Clay |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 18/07 | Kimmer Coppejans Challenger Bunschoten · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 17/07 | Ryan Nijboer Challenger Bunschoten · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 16/07 | Hynek Barton Challenger Bunschoten · Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 14/07 | Denis Yevseyev Challenger Bunschoten · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 10/07 | Kimmer Coppejans Challenger Liege · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 09/07 | Federico Coria Challenger Liege · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 07/07 | Tsung-Hao Huang Challenger Liege · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 22/06 | Yi Zhou Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Alexandre Muller
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07 | Mili Poljicak Challenger San Marino · Clay |
1-2 | 18-20 | L |
| 29/07 | Marco Cecchinato Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 27/07 | Stefano Napolitano Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/07 | Mariano Navone ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Alexander Shevchenko ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 29/06 | Tommy Paul Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 4-18 | L |
| 16/05 | Edas Butvilas ATP Geneva · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/05 | Rei Sakamoto Challenger Bordeaux · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 06/05 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 28/04 | Yibing Wu Challenger Aix en Provence · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Guy Den Ouden vs Alexandre Muller?
Our model gives 58% to Guy Den Ouden, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.