Tennis · ATP Montreal · 01/08, 18:00
Prediction: Alexei Popyrin vs Thanasi Kokkinakis
Team pages: Alexei Popyrin · Thanasi Kokkinakis
Prediction summary
Winner
Alexei Popyrin
Thanasi Kokkinakis
Estimated games
25.6
Recent form · 10 last
Alexei Popyrin
5-5 (W-L)
Thanasi Kokkinakis
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alexei Popyrin
0–3
Thanasi Kokkinakis
(3 last)
- 28 May2-3 25-28L
- 17 Feb0-2 9-13L
- 09 Jan1-2 12-19L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexei Popyrin 1475 · Thanasi Kokkinakis 1554
| Alexei Popyrin | Thanasi Kokkinakis | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 39% | 61% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Thanasi Kokkinakis (rating 1475 vs 1554).
- Thanasi Kokkinakis dominates on serve: 12.6 aces and 46.2% break avg.
- Thanasi Kokkinakis is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Alexei Popyrin 0–3 Thanasi Kokkinakis (3).
Statistics
| Alexei Popyrin | Thanasi Kokkinakis | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (6) | 100% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.8 | 1.9-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-14.4 | 16.6-13.1 |
| Aces | 7 | 12.6 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 69.7% | 77.7% |
| Break % | 22.8% | 46.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.6
H2H · Alexei Popyrin 0 – 3 Thanasi Kokkinakis (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alexei Popyrin 0–3 Thanasi Kokkinakis
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/05/24 French Open | 2-3 | 25-28 | L |
| 17/02/23 Challenger Manama | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 09/01/23 ATP Adelaide 2 | 1-2 | 12-19 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexei Popyrin
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07 | Andy Andrade Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 30/06 | Jiri Lehecka Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 10-18 | L |
| 22/06 | Jan Choinski ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Raphael Collignon ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/05 | Zachary Svajda French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 20-23 | L |
| 21/05 | Casper Ruud ATP Geneva · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 20/05 | Taylor Fritz ATP Geneva · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 19/05 | Clement Tabur ATP Geneva · Clay |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 11/05 | Jannik Sinner ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 09/05 | Jakub Mensik ATP Rome · Clay |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
Thanasi Kokkinakis
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | Adam Walton Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 21/07 | Evan Zhu Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 30/06 | Alexander Bublik Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 23-28 | L |
| 16/06 | Jerome Kym Challenger Dublin · Grass |
1-2 | 16-13 | L |
| 15/06 | Ammar Elamin Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 14/06 | Harold Mayot Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 08/06 | Tomas Barrios Vera Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 25/05 | Terence Atmane French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 29-23 | W |
| 11/05 | Michele Ribecai Challenger Zagreb · Clay |
2-1 | 18-10 | W |
| 10/05 | Daniel Michalski Challenger Zagreb · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexei Popyrin vs Thanasi Kokkinakis?
Our model gives 61% to Thanasi Kokkinakis, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.