Tennis · ATP Los Cabos · 30/07, 06:00
Prediction: Dalibor Svrcina vs Luciano Darderi
Team pages: Dalibor Svrcina · Luciano Darderi
Prediction summary
Winner
Dalibor Svrcina
Luciano Darderi
Estimated games
24.4Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Dalibor Svrcina
5-5 (W-L)
Luciano Darderi
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Dalibor Svrcina
1–3
Luciano Darderi
(4 last)
- 30 Mar1-2 13-14L
- 31 Oct0-2 5-12L
- 05 Jun2-1 17-11W
- 14 Jul1-2 18-19L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Dalibor Svrcina 1503 · Luciano Darderi 1549
| Dalibor Svrcina | Luciano Darderi | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 38% | 62% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Luciano Darderi (rating 1503 vs 1549).
- Head-to-head: Dalibor Svrcina 1–3 Luciano Darderi (4).
- Note: Dalibor Svrcina makes many double faults (6/match).
Statistics
| Dalibor Svrcina | Luciano Darderi | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (8) | 71% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.2 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.3-12.1 | 13.2-11.8 |
| Aces | 2.5 | 5.7 |
| Double faults | 6 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 66% | 71.5% |
| Break % | 56.5% | 32.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.4 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.9
Over 22.5: 63% · 1.90
Under 22.5: 37% · 1.80
H2H · Dalibor Svrcina 1 – 3 Luciano Darderi (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Dalibor Svrcina 1–3 Luciano Darderi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/03/25 Challenger Naples | 1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 31/10/23 Challenger Guayaquil | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/06/23 Challenger Prostejov | 2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 14/07/22 Challenger Iasi | 1-2 | 18-19 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Dalibor Svrcina
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07 | Adam Walton ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 14/07 | Grigor Dimitrov ATP Bastad · Clay |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
| 08/07 | Diego Dedura-Palomero Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 07/07 | Thiago Seyboth Wild Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/06 | Learner Tien Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 15-24 | L |
| 19/06 | Gustavo Heide Challenger Poznan · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 18/06 | Gonzalo Bueno Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 17/06 | Norbert Gombos Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/06 | Duje Ajdukovic Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 08/06 | Andrea Guerrieri Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
Luciano Darderi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Alexander Blockx ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 19-19 | L |
| 24/07 | Jaime Faria ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 23/07 | Pedro Martinez ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 19/07 | Andrey Rublev ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 18/07 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 17/07 | Nuno Borges ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 15/07 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 29/06 | Ethan Quinn Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 13-20 | L |
| 25/06 | Nuno Borges ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 23/06 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Dalibor Svrcina vs Luciano Darderi?
Our model gives 60% to Luciano Darderi, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.