Tennis · WTA Targu Mures · 30/07, 10:00

Prediction: Laura Samsonova vs Anastasiya Konstantinovna Soboleva

Team pages: Laura Samsonova · Anastasiya Konstantinovna Soboleva

Prediction summary

Winner

45% 55%

Laura Samsonova Anastasiya Konstantinovna Soboleva

Estimated games

21.6

Recent form · 10 last

Laura Samsonova 4-6 (W-L)

LWWWLLLLLW

Anastasiya Konstantinovna Soboleva 7-3 (W-L)

LWWWWLLWWW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Laura Samsonova 1531 · Anastasiya Konstantinovna Soboleva 1604

	Laura Samsonova	Anastasiya Konstantinovna Soboleva
Our model	40%	60%
Market	50%	50%

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Match keys

Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Anastasiya Konstantinovna Soboleva (rating 1531 vs 1604).
Anastasiya Konstantinovna Soboleva is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Note: Laura Samsonova makes many double faults (6.3/match).

Statistics

	Laura Samsonova	Anastasiya Konstantinovna Soboleva
Win %	50%	80%
Win % · Clay	63% (8)	100% (2)
Sets (G-P)	1.1-1.1	1.7-0.6
Games (G-P)	10.4-11.4	11.7-8.8
Aces	1.7	1.4
Double faults	6.3	3
1st serve %	59.7%	61.7%
Break %	39.8%	47.2%

Estimated total games (ours) 21.6

Odds Bet365

11.83

21.83

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
2	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1%

Time*	1	2
23:02 +34’	1.83	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Last 10 matches played

Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Laura Samsonova

LWLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
28/07	Alesia Breaz WTA Targu Mures · Clay	2-0	12-7	W
21/07	Maya Joint WTA Prague · Hard	1-2	12-15	L
16/07	Gina Feistel WTA Kitzbuhel · Clay	0-2	4-12	L
14/07	Laura Pigossi WTA Kitzbuhel · Clay	2-1	18-17	W
23/06	Katie Volynets Wimbledon Women · Grass	0-2	7-13	L
13/06	Lucia Bronzetti WTA Modena · Clay	0-2	7-13	L
12/06	Kaitlin Quevedo WTA Modena · Clay	2-0	12-7	W
10/06	Darja Semenistaja WTA Modena · Clay	2-0	13-7	W
08/06	Xiyu Wang WTA Modena · Clay	2-0	14-11	W
03/06	Andrea Lazaro Garcia WTA Makarska · Clay	0-2	5-12	L

Anastasiya Konstantinovna Soboleva

LWWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
28/07	Selena Janicijevic WTA Targu Mures · Clay	2-0	12-6	W
24/07	Anna Siskova W100 Amstetten	1-2	10-15	L
22/07	Cagla Buyukakcay W100 Amstetten	2-0	12-5	W
20/07	Gina Marie Dittmann W100 Amstetten	2-1	17-10	W
12/07	Ekaterine Gorgodze W100 Aschaffenburg	0-2	0-7	L
11/07	Julia Avdeeva W100 Aschaffenburg	2-0	13-9	W
10/07	Dalila Jakupovic W100 Aschaffenburg	2-0	12-8	W
09/07	Lucia Bronzetti W100 Aschaffenburg	2-0	13-9	W
08/07	Eva Bennemann W100 Aschaffenburg	2-0	12-5	W
05/07	Alice Tubello W50 Stuttgart-Vaihingen · ~Clay	2-1	16-14	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Laura Samsonova vs Anastasiya Konstantinovna Soboleva?

Our model gives 55% to Anastasiya Konstantinovna Soboleva, using surface Elo on clay.

What is the prediction based on?

On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.