Tennis · W15 Savitaipale · 29/07, 09:00

Prediction: Elza Tomase vs Matylda Burylo

Team pages: Elza Tomase · Matylda Burylo

Prediction summary

Winner

70% 30%

Elza Tomase Matylda Burylo

Estimated games

19.5

Recent form · 10 last

Elza Tomase 8-2 (W-L)

WWWWLWWWWL

Matylda Burylo 4-6 (W-L)

LLLWLWLWWL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Elza Tomase 1585 · Matylda Burylo 1508

	Elza Tomase	Matylda Burylo
Our model	61%	39%
Market	78%	22%

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Match keys

Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Elza Tomase (rating 1585 vs 1508).
Elza Tomase is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Note: Elza Tomase makes many double faults (4.5/match).

Statistics

	Elza Tomase	Matylda Burylo
Win %	80%	50%
Win % · Clay	80% (10)	57% (7)
Sets (G-P)	1.7-0.4	1.1-1.2
Games (G-P)	11.1-6.9	8.6-9.7
Aces	1.4	0.3
Double faults	4.5	2.6
1st serve %	71.4%	56.3%
Break %	51.6%	43%

Estimated total games (ours) 19.5

Odds Bet365

11.20

24.33

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.20 → 1.20	Bet365 1.20
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.4%

Time*	1	2
02:29 +8’	1.20	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Last 10 matches played

Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Elza Tomase

WWWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
12/07	Adithya Karunaratne W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay	1-2	8-14	L
11/07	Anja Stankovic W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay	2-0	12-6	W
10/07	Leticia Solakov W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay	2-0	12-5	W
10/07	Lucia Natal W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay	2-0	12-6	W
08/07	Noemi La Cagnina W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay	2-0	12-3	W
05/07	Anja Stankovic W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay	0-2	6-13	L
04/07	Anna Petkovic W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay	2-0	12-5	W
03/07	Dunja Maric W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay	2-0	12-4	W
02/07	Dana Charintceva W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay	2-0	12-4	W
30/06	Aleksandra Pozarenko W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay	2-0	13-9	W

Matylda Burylo

WLLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
20/07	Merel Hoedt W35 Gentofte	0-2	4-12	L
19/07	Phillippa Preugschat W35 Gentofte	2-0	12-2	W
22/06	Sofia Maria Barbulescu W15 Galati · ~Clay	1-2	11-12	L
18/06	Valentina Steiner W35 Ystad · ~Clay	0-2	5-12	L
17/06	Emina Honic W35 Ystad · ~Clay	2-0	13-9	W
16/06	Caroline Hermanns W35 Ystad · ~Clay	2-1	9-7	W
15/06	Isabel Petri Bere W35 Ystad · ~Clay	2-0	13-9	W
27/05	Franziska Sziedat W15 Oliva · ~Clay	0-2	4-12	L
26/05	Andrea Burguete Beltran W15 Oliva · ~Clay	2-1	10-10	W
20/05	Alice Gillan W35 Estepona · ~Hard	0-2	5-12	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Elza Tomase vs Matylda Burylo?

Our model gives 70% to Elza Tomase, using surface Elo on clay.

What is the prediction based on?

On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.