Tennis · M15 Brisbane · 28/07, 05:00
Prediction: Lachlan Mcfadzean vs Chase Ferguson
Team pages: Lachlan Mcfadzean · Chase Ferguson
Prediction summary
Winner
Lachlan Mcfadzean
Chase Ferguson
Estimated games
22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Lachlan Mcfadzean
3-7 (W-L)
Chase Ferguson
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lachlan Mcfadzean 1474 · Chase Ferguson 1525
| Lachlan Mcfadzean | Chase Ferguson | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 42% | 58% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chase Ferguson (rating 1474 vs 1525).
Statistics
| Lachlan Mcfadzean | Chase Ferguson | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 33% (6) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.4 | 1.4-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.1-11.2 | 12.5-11.9 |
| Aces | 3.9 | 2.1 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 69.7% | 63.6% |
| Break % | 53.5% | 45.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lachlan Mcfadzean
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07 | Daniel Jovanovski M15 Brisbane |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 22/07 | Ethan Domingo M15 Brisbane |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 21/07 | Harrison Satara M15 Brisbane |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/07 | Shinji Hazawa M25 Brisbane |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 29/05 | Shintaro Imai M15 Luan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 28/05 | Grigoriy Lomakin M15 Luan · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 27/05 | Qian Sun M15 Luan · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 20/05 | Yuquan Jin M15 Luan · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 13/05 | Boxiong Zhang M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 08/05 | Uisung Park M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Chase Ferguson
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07 | Duje Markovina M15 Brisbane |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 23/07 | Derek Pham M15 Brisbane |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 17/07 | Jake Delaney M25 Brisbane |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 16/07 | Mustafa Ege Sik M25 Brisbane |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/07 | Yuki Mochizuki M25 Brisbane |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 03/07 | Fitriadi M Rifqi M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 02/07 | Yuta Tomida M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/07 | Noritaka Koizumi M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 25/06 | Fanming Meng M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Taiyo Yamanaka M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lachlan Mcfadzean vs Chase Ferguson?
Our model gives 57% to Chase Ferguson, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.