Prediction: Daniel Bagnolini vs Keisuke Saitoh
Team pages: Daniel Bagnolini · Keisuke Saitoh
Prediction summary
Winner
Daniel Bagnolini
Keisuke Saitoh
Estimated games
21.8
Recent form · 10 last
Daniel Bagnolini
6-4 (W-L)
Keisuke Saitoh
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daniel Bagnolini 1434 · Keisuke Saitoh 1523
| Daniel Bagnolini | Keisuke Saitoh | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 63% |
| Market | 13% | 87% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Keisuke Saitoh (rating 1434 vs 1523).
- Keisuke Saitoh is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Daniel Bagnolini makes many double faults (4.6/match).
Statistics
| Daniel Bagnolini | Keisuke Saitoh | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (2) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.6 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.2-12.5 | 11.8-10.2 |
| Aces | 1.3 | 3.1 |
| Double faults | 4.6 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 60.4% | 67.4% |
| Break % | 37.5% | 48.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daniel Bagnolini
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | Alaa Trifi M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 08/07 | Timofey Stepanov M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 08/06 | Jacopo Bilardo M15 Messina · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 24/05 | Petr Nesterov Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
1-2 | 10-18 | L |
| 18/05 | Tommaso Compagnucci Challenger Cervia · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 17/05 | Sebastian Sorger Challenger Cervia · Clay |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 11/05 | Filippo Mazzola M25 Reggio Emilia · ~Clay |
1-2 | 9-10 | L |
| 10/05 | Max Kohler M25 Reggio Emilia · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 29/04 | Kasra Rahmani M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-2 | 10-12 | L |
| 27/04 | Andrey Chepelev M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
Keisuke Saitoh
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07 | Alexander Chang M15 Bali |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 22/07 | Ren Nakamura M15 Bali |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 18/06 | Hunter Heck M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-9 | L |
| 17/06 | Kousuke Ogura M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 29/05 | Alan Magadan M15 Gimcheon · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 28/05 | Tai Leonard Sach M15 Gimcheon · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 27/05 | Hyung Tak Oh M15 Gimcheon · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 22/05 | Dong Ju Kim M15 Gimcheon · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 21/05 | Hunter Heck M15 Gimcheon · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 20/05 | Matthew Dellavedova M15 Gimcheon · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daniel Bagnolini vs Keisuke Saitoh?
Our model gives 76% to Keisuke Saitoh, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.