Tennis · Challenger Bonn · 28/07, 11:00
Prediction: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Alex Barrena
Prediction summary
Winner
Diego Dedura-Palomero
Alex Barrena
Estimated games
23.1
Recent form · 10 last
Diego Dedura-Palomero
8-2 (W-L)
Alex Barrena
1-9 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Diego Dedura-Palomero
0–1
Alex Barrena
(1 last)
- 31 May0-2 6-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Diego Dedura-Palomero 1609 · Alex Barrena 1454
| Diego Dedura-Palomero | Alex Barrena | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 71% | 29% |
| Market | 73% | 27% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Diego Dedura-Palomero (rating 1609 vs 1454).
- Diego Dedura-Palomero is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Diego Dedura-Palomero 0–1 Alex Barrena (1).
Statistics
| Diego Dedura-Palomero | Alex Barrena | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 80% (10) | 33% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.7 | 0.8-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.7-10.3 | 10.8-12.9 |
| Aces | 0.8 | 2.1 |
| Double faults | 0.7 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 66.1% | 61.4% |
| Break % | 55.7% | 29.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.1
H2H · Diego Dedura-Palomero 0 – 1 Alex Barrena (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Diego Dedura-Palomero 0–1 Alex Barrena
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/25 ITF M15 Warmbad-Villach | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Diego Dedura-Palomero
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Otto Virtanen Challenger Tampere · Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 25/07 | Gauthier Onclin Challenger Tampere · Clay |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 24/07 | Igor Marcondes Challenger Tampere · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 23/07 | Guido Ivan Justo Challenger Tampere · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 21/07 | Nicolas Kicker Challenger Tampere · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 10/07 | Jan Choinski Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 08/07 | Dalibor Svrcina Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 07/07 | Clement Tabur Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 01/07 | Francisco Comesana Challenger Milan · Clay |
1-2 | 13-19 | L |
| 29/06 | Miguel Damas Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Alex Barrena
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Niels Visker Challenger Tampere · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 16/07 | Stefano Napolitano Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 13/07 | Franco Agamenone Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 09/07 | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Challenger Trieste · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 07/07 | Oleg Prihodko Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 01/07 | Gustavo Heide Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 29/06 | Hugo Dellien Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 22/06 | Timofey Skatov Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 09/06 | Lukas Pokorny Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 02/06 | Joao Lucas Reis da Silva Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Alex Barrena?
Our model gives 72% to Diego Dedura-Palomero, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.