Tennis · ATP Washington · 27/07, 16:00
Prediction: Alex Michelsen vs Jack Draper
Prediction summary
Winner
Alex Michelsen
Jack Draper
Estimated games
24Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alex Michelsen
9-1 (W-L)
Jack Draper
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alex Michelsen 1586 · Jack Draper 1511
| Alex Michelsen | Jack Draper | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 45% | 55% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alex Michelsen (rating 1586 vs 1511).
Statistics
| Alex Michelsen | Jack Draper | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 100% (5) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.7 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 14-10.5 | 12.5-11.6 |
| Aces | 5.3 | 6.1 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 73.9% | 77.2% |
| Break % | 56.4% | 29.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +0.5
Over 23.5: 53% · 1.90
Under 23.5: 47% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alex Michelsen
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 25/07 | Dhakshineswar Suresh Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 25/07 | Mark Lajal Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 23/07 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 22/07 | Aidan Mayo Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 11/07 | Adam Walton Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 10/07 | Liam Broady Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 09/07 | Jason Jung Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 08/07 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/06 | Jacob Fearnley Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 19-25 | L |
Jack Draper
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Ugo Humbert ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 25/06 | Gabriel Diallo ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/06 | Jack Pinnington Jones ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 22/06 | Marcos Giron ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 20/03 | Reilly Opelka ATP Miami · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 13/03 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Indian Wells · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 12/03 | Novak Djokovic ATP Indian Wells · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 09/03 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Indian Wells · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 07/03 | Roberto Bautista-Agut ATP Indian Wells · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 25/02 | Arthur Rinderknech ATP Dubai · Hard |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alex Michelsen vs Jack Draper?
Our model gives 52% to Alex Michelsen, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.