Tennis · ATP Los Cabos · 29/07, 03:00
Prediction: Moise Kouame vs Grigor Dimitrov
Prediction summary
Winner
Moise Kouame
Grigor Dimitrov
Estimated games
26.9Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Moise Kouame
5-5 (W-L)
Grigor Dimitrov
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Moise Kouame 1448 · Grigor Dimitrov 1538
| Moise Kouame | Grigor Dimitrov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 63% |
| Market | 28% | 72% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Grigor Dimitrov (rating 1448 vs 1538).
- Grigor Dimitrov is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Moise Kouame makes many double faults (5.8/match).
- Note: Grigor Dimitrov makes many double faults (4.7/match).
Statistics
| Moise Kouame | Grigor Dimitrov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 33% (9) | 50% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.8 | 1.7-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-14.8 | 15.7-15 |
| Aces | 4.6 | 9.4 |
| Double faults | 5.8 | 4.7 |
| 1st serve % | 66.6% | 73.2% |
| Break % | 38% | 38.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.9 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +4.4
Over 22.5: 78% · 1.90
Under 22.5: 22% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Moise Kouame
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Nuno Borges ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 06/07 | Max Hans Rehberg Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 20/06 | Batsomi Marobela Davis Cup |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 30/05 | Alejandro Tabilo French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 19-23 | L |
| 28/05 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 25-26 | W |
| 26/05 | Marin Cilic French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 19-9 | W |
| 19/05 | Jacopo Vasami Challenger Cervia · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 12/05 | Benjamin Bonzi Challenger Bordeaux · Clay |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 20/04 | Patrick Kypson ATP Madrid · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 18/04 | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
Grigor Dimitrov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | Nuno Borges ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Dalibor Svrcina ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 14-16 | W |
| 06/07 | Arthur Fery Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 27-27 | L |
| 04/07 | Matteo Berrettini Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 26-23 | W |
| 02/07 | Jakub Mensik Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 24-20 | W |
| 30/06 | Dane Sweeny Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 20-14 | W |
| 25/06 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Abedallah Shelbayh ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/06 | Marc Polmans ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 18/06 | Kyrian Jacquet Challenger Dublin · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Moise Kouame vs Grigor Dimitrov?
Our model gives 68% to Grigor Dimitrov, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.