Tennis · ATP Washington · 27/07, 16:00

Prediction: Matteo Arnaldi vs Lorenzo Musetti

Prediction summary

Winner

46% 54%

Matteo Arnaldi Lorenzo Musetti

Estimated games

27Bet365 line 22.5

Recent form · 10 last

Matteo Arnaldi 6-4 (W-L)

LWWWWLLWWL

Lorenzo Musetti 6-4 (W-L)

LWWLWWLWWL

Head-to-head

Matteo Arnaldi 0–4 Lorenzo Musetti (4 last)

14 Jan1-3 21-24L
19 Jul1-2 15-17L
14 May0-2 8-12L
09 Apr0-2 2-12L

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Matteo Arnaldi 1547 · Lorenzo Musetti 1527

	Matteo Arnaldi	Lorenzo Musetti
Our model	53%	47%
Market	40%	60%

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Match keys

Matteo Arnaldi dominates on serve: 8.6 aces and 41.6% break avg.
Head-to-head: Matteo Arnaldi 0–4 Lorenzo Musetti (4).

Statistics

	Matteo Arnaldi	Lorenzo Musetti
Win %	70%	60%
Win % · Clay	83% (6)	60% (10)
Sets (G-P)	2-1.5	1.2-0.8
Games (G-P)	19.5-18.7	10.4-10.1
Aces	8.6	2.3
Double faults	3.7	1.7
1st serve %	74.1%	67.6%
Break %	41.6%	33%

Estimated total games (ours) 27 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +4.5

Over 22.5: 79% · 1.83 Under 22.5: 21% · 1.83

H2H · Matteo Arnaldi 0 – 4 Lorenzo Musetti (4)

Odds Bet365

12.38

21.57

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.5)1.83

2 (-2.5)1.83

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38
2	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 5.8%

Time*	1	2
17:16 +15’	2.38	1.57

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Matteo Arnaldi 0–4 Lorenzo Musetti

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Date	Sets	Games	Res.
14/01/25 Australian Open	1-3	21-24	L
19/07/23 ATP Bastad	1-2	15-17	L
14/05/23 ATP Rome	0-2	8-12	L
09/04/19 Challenger Barletta	0-2	2-12	L

Last 10 matches played

Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Matteo Arnaldi

WLLWL

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Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
16/07	Damir Dzumhur ATP Umag · Clay	1-2	19-20	L
15/07	Federico Agustin Gomez ATP Umag · Clay	2-1	17-13	W
30/06	Quentin Halys Wimbledon · Grass	1-3	16-22	L
23/06	Giles Hussey ATP Eastbourne · Grass	0-2	6-12	L
21/06	Toby Samuel ATP Eastbourne · Grass	2-1	15-14	W
20/06	Alastair Gray ATP Eastbourne · Grass	2-0	14-12	W
01/06	Frances Tiafoe French Open · Clay	3-2	29-29	W
30/05	Raphael Collignon French Open · Clay	3-2	30-28	W
28/05	Stefanos Tsitsipas French Open · Clay	3-1	24-18	W
26/05	Tallon Griekspoor French Open · Clay	3-1	25-19	W

Lorenzo Musetti

WLWWL

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Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
12/05	Casper Ruud ATP Rome · Clay	0-2	4-12	L
10/05	Francisco Cerundolo ATP Rome · Clay	2-0	13-10	W
08/05	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ATP Rome · Clay	2-0	12-8	W
28/04	Jiri Lehecka ATP Madrid · Clay	0-2	6-12	L
26/04	Tallon Griekspoor ATP Madrid · Clay	2-0	13-9	W
24/04	Hubert Hurkacz ATP Madrid · Clay	2-0	13-10	W
17/04	Arthur Fils ATP Barcelona · Clay	0-2	7-12	L
16/04	Corentin Moutet ATP Barcelona · Clay	2-0	12-7	W
14/04	Martin Landaluce ATP Barcelona · Clay	2-0	13-7	W
08/04	Valentin Vacherot ATP Monte Carlo · Clay	0-2	11-14	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Matteo Arnaldi vs Lorenzo Musetti?

Our model gives 54% to Lorenzo Musetti, using surface Elo on clay.

What is the prediction based on?

On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.