Tennis · W35 Aldershot · 26/07, 15:30
Prediction: Matilde Mariani vs Eloise Newberry
Prediction summary
Winner
Matilde Mariani
Eloise Newberry
Estimated games
19.8
Recent form · 10 last
Matilde Mariani
4-6 (W-L)
Eloise Newberry
1-9 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Matilde Mariani
1–0
Eloise Newberry
(1 last)
- 26 May2-0 12-4W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matilde Mariani 1513 · Eloise Newberry 1410
| Matilde Mariani | Eloise Newberry | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 36% |
| Market | 90% | 10% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Matilde Mariani (rating 1513 vs 1410).
- Matilde Mariani is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Matilde Mariani 1–0 Eloise Newberry (1).
- Note: Matilde Mariani makes many double faults (5.7/match).
- Note: Eloise Newberry makes many double faults (4.6/match).
Statistics
| Matilde Mariani | Eloise Newberry | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 10% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 17% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.2 | 0.3-1.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.3-9.6 | 6.3-11.9 |
| Aces | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| Double faults | 5.7 | 4.6 |
| 1st serve % | 56.8% | 61.4% |
| Break % | 59.8% | 35.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.8
H2H · Matilde Mariani 1 – 0 Eloise Newberry (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Matilde Mariani 1–0 Eloise Newberry
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/05/26 W15 Monastir | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matilde Mariani
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | Kristina Paskauskas W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Margaux Komano W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 09/07 | Katja Wiersholm W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 07/07 | Sofia Avataneo W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 9-3 | W |
| 26/06 | Lenka Munzarova W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 25/06 | Sofia Avataneo W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 24/06 | Summer Yardley W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 14-6 | W |
| 21/06 | Lucie Pawlak W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-7 | L |
| 20/06 | Mariia Nozdrachova W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 19/06 | Yelyzaveta Chainykova W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
Eloise Newberry
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Mia Wainwright W50 Nottingham |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 08/07 | Sadjo Coulibaly W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 07/07 | Martyna Zaremba W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 10-10 | W |
| 26/05 | Matilde Mariani W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 18/05 | Emira Diabate W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 04/05 | Mia Wainwright W35 Nottingham Qual |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 26/04 | Lilian Poling W35 Nottingham |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 19/04 | Alba Rey Garcia W50 Roehampton · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 12/10 | Pauline Gloeckner W35 Birmingham |
1-2 | 9-10 | L |
| 11/08 | Klara Veldman ITF W35 Aldershot · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matilde Mariani vs Eloise Newberry?
Our model gives 78% to Matilde Mariani, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.