Tennis · Challenger San Marino · 26/07, 10:00
Prediction: Federico Bondioli vs Michael Vrbensky
Prediction summary
Winner
Federico Bondioli
Michael Vrbensky
Estimated games
23.6
Recent form · 10 last
Federico Bondioli
4-6 (W-L)
Michael Vrbensky
2-8 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Federico Bondioli 1557 · Michael Vrbensky 1384
| Federico Bondioli | Michael Vrbensky | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 73% | 27% |
| Market | 77% | 23% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Federico Bondioli (rating 1557 vs 1384).
- Federico Bondioli is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Michael Vrbensky makes many double faults (5.2/match).
Statistics
| Federico Bondioli | Michael Vrbensky | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 10% |
| Win % · Clay | 67% (9) | 10% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.1 | 0.5-1.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 12-12 | 10.5-14.6 |
| Aces | 3.9 | 3.4 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 5.2 |
| 1st serve % | 65.1% | 58.1% |
| Break % | 38.3% | 48.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Federico Bondioli
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Max Alcala Gurri Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 18/07 | Matyas Fuele Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/07 | Sumit Nagal Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 15/07 | Guido Ivan Justo Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/07 | Alvaro Guillen Meza Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 10/07 | Henry Bernet Challenger Trieste · Clay |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 09/07 | Maxim Mrva Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 07/07 | Joel Schwaerzler Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 30/06 | Inaki Montes-De La Torre Challenger Troyes · Clay |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 20/06 | Adam Walton ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
Michael Vrbensky
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07 | Patrik Niklas-Salminen Challenger Tampere · Clay |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 28/06 | Maxime Janvier Challenger Brasov · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 15/06 | Milos Karol Challenger Poznan · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 31/05 | Marvin Moeller Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 11/05 | Dali Blanch Challenger Tunis · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 10/05 | Robin Bertrand Challenger Tunis · Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 26/04 | Daniel Cukierman Challenger Mauthausen · Clay |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 05/04 | Franco Agamenone Challenger Madrid · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 30/03 | Yaroslav Demin Challenger Menorca · Clay |
1-2 | 18-19 | L |
| 22/03 | Denis Yevseyev Challenger Alicante · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Federico Bondioli vs Michael Vrbensky?
Our model gives 75% to Federico Bondioli, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.