Tennis · WTA Targu Mures · 26/07, 11:30
Prediction: Maria Sara Popa vs Amarissa Kiara Toth
Prediction summary
Winner
Maria Sara Popa
Amarissa Kiara Toth
Estimated games
21.8
Recent form · 10 last
Maria Sara Popa
6-4 (W-L)
Amarissa Kiara Toth
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Maria Sara Popa
1–0
Amarissa Kiara Toth
(1 last)
- 12 Jan2-1 13-12W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Maria Sara Popa 1510 · Amarissa Kiara Toth 1471
| Maria Sara Popa | Amarissa Kiara Toth | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 35% | 65% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Maria Sara Popa 1–0 Amarissa Kiara Toth (1).
- Note: Maria Sara Popa makes many double faults (6.1/match).
Statistics
| Maria Sara Popa | Amarissa Kiara Toth | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 57% (7) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-0.9 | 1.2-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-9.4 | 11.5-11.1 |
| Aces | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Double faults | 6.1 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 65.8% | 57.7% |
| Break % | 49.3% | 56% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
H2H · Maria Sara Popa 1 – 0 Amarissa Kiara Toth (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Maria Sara Popa 1–0 Amarissa Kiara Toth
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/01/24 W35 Antalya | 2-1 | 13-12 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Maria Sara Popa
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Claire Liu WTA Iasi · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 06/07 | Amandine Monnot WTA Contrexeville · Clay |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 05/07 | Yara Bartashevich WTA Contrexeville · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 03/07 | Lia Karatancheva W35 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/07 | Britt Du Pree W35 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 01/07 | Lian Tran W35 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 23/06 | Alessandra Mazzola W35 Tarvisio · ~Clay |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 13/06 | Clara Burel W35 Nice |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 12/06 | Iva Ivanova W35 Nice |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 10/06 | Yelyzaveta Kotliar W35 Nice |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Amarissa Kiara Toth
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07 | Jennifer Ruggeri WTA Palermo · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 25/06 | Daria Kuczer W50 Gdansk · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 23/06 | Laura Hietaranta W50 Gdansk · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 15/06 | Chloe Paquet WTA Brescia · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 11/06 | Dalila Jakupovic W100 Zagreb · ~Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 10/06 | Caroline Werner W100 Zagreb · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 22/05 | Carlota Martinez Cirez W50 Portoroz · ~Clay |
1-2 | 9-17 | L |
| 21/05 | Tilwith Di Girolami W50 Portoroz · ~Clay |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 20/05 | Kaja Najzer W50 Portoroz · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 27/04 | Emily Seibold W100 Wiesbaden · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Maria Sara Popa vs Amarissa Kiara Toth?
Our model gives 55% to Amarissa Kiara Toth, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.