Tennis · M15 Brisbane · 24/07, 03:00
Prediction: Chase Ferguson vs Duje Markovina
Prediction summary
Winner
Chase Ferguson
Duje Markovina
Estimated games
22.7
Recent form · 10 last
Chase Ferguson
5-5 (W-L)
Duje Markovina
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Chase Ferguson
1–1
Duje Markovina
(2 last)
- 17 Feb2-1 11-11W
- 19 Nov1-2 17-18L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Chase Ferguson 1518 · Duje Markovina 1503
| Chase Ferguson | Duje Markovina | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Chase Ferguson | Duje Markovina | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (6) | 0% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1 | 1-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-12 | 10.8-11.9 |
| Aces | 2.1 | 6.9 |
| Double faults | 2.2 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 64% | 67.8% |
| Break % | 47% | 31.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.7
H2H · Chase Ferguson 1 – 1 Duje Markovina (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Chase Ferguson 1–1 Duje Markovina
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/02/25 M25 Burnie | 2-1 | 11-11 | W |
| 19/11/24 ITF M25 Caloundra | 1-2 | 17-18 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Chase Ferguson
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07 | Derek Pham M15 Brisbane |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 17/07 | Jake Delaney M25 Brisbane |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 16/07 | Mustafa Ege Sik M25 Brisbane |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/07 | Yuki Mochizuki M25 Brisbane |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 03/07 | Fitriadi M Rifqi M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 02/07 | Yuta Tomida M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/07 | Noritaka Koizumi M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 25/06 | Fanming Meng M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Taiyo Yamanaka M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 16/06 | Taiyo Yamanaka M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
Duje Markovina
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07 | Blake Ellis M15 Brisbane |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 22/07 | Ashton Mcleod M15 Brisbane |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 15/07 | Jake Delaney M25 Brisbane |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 25/06 | Andrey Chepelev M25 Zagreb · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 23/06 | Jan Kumstat M25 Zagreb · ~Clay |
2-1 | 13-10 | W |
| 10/06 | Gilles Arnaud Bailly M25 Varnamo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 04/06 | Taym Alazmeh M15 Rosbach · ~Clay |
0-1 | 11-13 | L |
| 03/06 | Marc Majdandzic M15 Rosbach · ~Clay |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 02/06 | Enrique Bogo M15 Rosbach · ~Clay |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 29/05 | Duje Ajdukovic M25 Bol · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Chase Ferguson vs Duje Markovina?
Our model gives 53% to Chase Ferguson, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.