Prediction: Alexander Chang vs Keisuke Saitoh
Prediction summary
Winner
Alexander Chang
Keisuke Saitoh
Estimated games
21.8
Recent form · 10 last
Alexander Chang
8-2 (W-L)
Keisuke Saitoh
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexander Chang 1470 · Keisuke Saitoh 1539
| Alexander Chang | Keisuke Saitoh | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 29% | 71% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Keisuke Saitoh (rating 1470 vs 1539).
- Keisuke Saitoh is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Alexander Chang makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Alexander Chang | Keisuke Saitoh | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 29% (7) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.3 | 1.5-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.8-12.1 | 12.2-9.4 |
| Aces | 4.6 | 3.2 |
| Double faults | 4.4 | 1.6 |
| 1st serve % | 66.7% | 69.9% |
| Break % | 33.5% | 52.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexander Chang
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | Azuma Visaya M15 Bali |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 08/07 | Jack Anthrop M15 Rancho Santa Fe |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 07/07 | Connor Church M15 Rancho Santa Fe |
2-1 | 11-9 | W |
| 01/07 | Aidan Kim M15 San Diego · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 31/12 | Spencer Johnson UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 29/12 | Vlad Cristian Breazu UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 28/12 | Cassius Chinlund UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 27/12 | Justin Chung UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/10 | Jacob Brumm Challenger Fairfield · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 05/09 | Max Basing ITF M25 Bali · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Keisuke Saitoh
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | Ren Nakamura M15 Bali |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 18/06 | Hunter Heck M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-9 | L |
| 17/06 | Kousuke Ogura M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 29/05 | Alan Magadan M15 Gimcheon · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 28/05 | Tai Leonard Sach M15 Gimcheon · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 27/05 | Hyung Tak Oh M15 Gimcheon · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 22/05 | Dong Ju Kim M15 Gimcheon · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 21/05 | Hunter Heck M15 Gimcheon · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 20/05 | Matthew Dellavedova M15 Gimcheon · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 17/05 | Hoyoung Roh M15 Andong · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexander Chang vs Keisuke Saitoh?
Our model gives 66% to Keisuke Saitoh, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.