Tennis · Challenger Zug · 21/07, 12:30
Prediction: Philip Henning vs Thiago Monteiro
Prediction summary
Winner
Philip Henning
Thiago Monteiro
Estimated games
22.9
Recent form · 10 last
Philip Henning
7-3 (W-L)
Thiago Monteiro
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Philip Henning 1493 · Thiago Monteiro 1559
| Philip Henning | Thiago Monteiro | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 29% | 71% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Thiago Monteiro (rating 1493 vs 1559).
- Note: Philip Henning makes many double faults (4.5/match).
Statistics
| Philip Henning | Thiago Monteiro | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 20% (5) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-0.9 | 1.6-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.4-8.9 | 14.1-12.9 |
| Aces | 3 | 5.8 |
| Double faults | 4.5 | 2.2 |
| 1st serve % | 52% | 71.7% |
| Break % | 32.5% | 44.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Philip Henning
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Felix Balshaw Challenger Liege · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 07/07 | Matteo Martineau Challenger Liege · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/06 | Dominic Stephan Stricker Challenger Troyes · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/06 | Andres Santamarta Roig Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Gerard Campana Lee Challenger Royan · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 07/06 | Alexander Donski Challenger Centurion · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 06/06 | Harold Mayot Challenger Centurion · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/06 | Giles Hussey Challenger Centurion · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/06 | Robert Strombachs Challenger Centurion · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/06 | Orel Kimhi Challenger Centurion · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Thiago Monteiro
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07 | Petr Nesterov Challenger Zug · Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 19/07 | Flynn Thomas Challenger Zug · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 12/07 | Dylan Dietrich ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 11/07 | Pierre-Hugues Herbert ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 21/05 | Franco Agamenone Challenger Istanbul · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 21/05 | Pol Martin Tiffon Challenger Istanbul · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 19/05 | Alejo Sanchez Quilez Challenger Istanbul · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/05 | Andy Andrade Challenger Zagreb · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 11/05 | Andrej Nedic Challenger Zagreb · Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 10/05 | Noa Vukadin Challenger Zagreb · Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Philip Henning vs Thiago Monteiro?
Our model gives 66% to Thiago Monteiro, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.