Tennis · ATP Estoril · 21/07, 14:30
Prediction: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Taro Daniel
Prediction summary
Winner
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Taro Daniel
Estimated games
22.1
Recent form · 10 last
Daniel Merida Aguilar
8-2 (W-L)
Taro Daniel
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daniel Merida Aguilar 1586 · Taro Daniel 1589
| Daniel Merida Aguilar | Taro Daniel | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Daniel Merida Aguilar | Taro Daniel | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 80% |
| Win % · Clay | 88% (8) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.9 | 1.7-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-9.8 | 12.6-9.7 |
| Aces | 1.8 | 2.5 |
| Double faults | 2.1 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 71.1% | 66.6% |
| Break % | 41.1% | 55% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Damir Dzumhur ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 17/07 | Roman Andres Burruchaga ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/07 | Titouan Droguet ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/07 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/07 | Ziga Sesko ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/07 | Daniil Medvedev Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 16-22 | L |
| 13/06 | Martin Damm ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 07/06 | Henrique Rocha Challenger Perugia · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 06/06 | Andrea Pellegrino Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 05/06 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Taro Daniel
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 18/07 | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/07 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 13/07 | Carlos Sanchez Jover ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 12/07 | Federico Coria ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 10/07 | Valentin Royer Challenger Iasi · Clay |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 09/07 | Zdenek Kolar Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 06/07 | Genaro Alberto Olivieri Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 14/06 | Alexander Shevchenko Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 13/06 | Federico Cina Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
2-1 | 13-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Taro Daniel?
Our model gives 58% to Daniel Merida Aguilar, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.