Tennis · Challenger Zug · 20/07, 11:00
Prediction: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Alexander Donski
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Prediction summary
Winner
Juan Pablo Varillas
Alexander Donski
Estimated games
23.6
Recent form · 10 last
Juan Pablo Varillas
5-5 (W-L)
Alexander Donski
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Juan Pablo Varillas 1529 · Alexander Donski 1525
| Juan Pablo Varillas | Alexander Donski | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 65% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Alexander Donski dominates on serve: 6.6 aces and 42.7% break avg.
Statistics
| Juan Pablo Varillas | Alexander Donski | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (10) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.2 | 1.4-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.8-12.5 | 12.3-10.9 |
| Aces | 5.9 | 6.6 |
| Double faults | 2.1 | 3.9 |
| 1st serve % | 68.8% | 75.3% |
| Break % | 46.8% | 42.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Juan Pablo Varillas
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Gabi Adrian Boitan Challenger Zug · Clay |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 11/07 | Nicolas Mejia Challenger Bogota · Clay |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 10/07 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 08/07 | Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 07/07 | Bruno Fernandez Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 01/07 | Alan Magadan Challenger Quito · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/06 | Dmitry Popko Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 05/05 | Ryan Dickerson Challenger Santos · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 10/04 | Lautaro Midon Challenger Campinas · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 08/04 | Gonzalo Villanueva Challenger Campinas · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Alexander Donski
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Marko Topo Challenger Zug · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/07 | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg Challenger Iasi · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 06/07 | Jiri Cizek Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 05/07 | Erik Grevelius Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/06 | Max Hans Rehberg Challenger Poznan · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Filip Pieczonka Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 10/06 | Joao Lucas Reis da Silva Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 07/06 | Philip Henning Challenger Centurion · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 06/06 | Khololwam Montsi Challenger Centurion · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 05/06 | Tuncay Duran Challenger Centurion · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Juan Pablo Varillas vs Alexander Donski?
Our model gives 58% to Juan Pablo Varillas, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.