Tennis · Challenger Bloomfield Hills · 21/07, 16:00
Prediction: Alex Michelsen vs Arthur Gea
Prediction summary
Winner
Alex Michelsen
Arthur Gea
Estimated games
25.3
Recent form · 10 last
Alex Michelsen
7-3 (W-L)
Arthur Gea
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alex Michelsen 1536 · Arthur Gea 1546
| Alex Michelsen | Arthur Gea | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 71% | 29% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Arthur Gea dominates on serve: 7.6 aces and 53.8% break avg.
- Note: Alex Michelsen makes many double faults (4.6/match).
- Note: Arthur Gea makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Alex Michelsen | Arthur Gea | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Grass | 60% (5) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-1.1 | 1.6-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.6-13.8 | 12.7-10.1 |
| Aces | 5.8 | 7.6 |
| Double faults | 4.6 | 4.4 |
| 1st serve % | 69.1% | 74.6% |
| Break % | 59.7% | 53.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alex Michelsen
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Adam Walton Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 10/07 | Liam Broady Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 09/07 | Jason Jung Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 08/07 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/06 | Jacob Fearnley Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 19-25 | L |
| 29/05 | Rafael Jodar French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 25-29 | L |
| 27/05 | Nishesh Basavareddy French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 22-18 | W |
| 25/05 | Alexander Shevchenko French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 18-8 | W |
| 21/05 | Learner Tien ATP Geneva · Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 20/05 | Stan Wawrinka ATP Geneva · Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
Arthur Gea
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Aleksandar Vukic Challenger Granby · Hard |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 18/07 | Murphy Cassone Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/07 | Liam Draxl Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 17/07 | Keegan Rice Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/07 | Fajing Sun Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/07 | Adam Walton Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 09/07 | Tristan Schoolkate Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 08/07 | Tyler Zink Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/06 | Soonwoo Kwon Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 22/06 | Raul Brancaccio Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alex Michelsen vs Arthur Gea?
Our model gives 61% to Alex Michelsen, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.