Tennis · Challenger Zug · 19/07, 15:00
Prediction: Samuele Pieri vs Petr Nesterov
Prediction summary
Winner
Samuele Pieri
Petr Nesterov
Estimated games
22
Recent form · 10 last
Samuele Pieri
2-8 (W-L)
Petr Nesterov
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Samuele Pieri
2–0
Petr Nesterov
(2 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Samuele Pieri 1455 · Petr Nesterov 1512
| Samuele Pieri | Petr Nesterov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 44% | 56% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Petr Nesterov (rating 1455 vs 1512).
- Petr Nesterov is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Samuele Pieri 2–0 Petr Nesterov (2).
Statistics
| Samuele Pieri | Petr Nesterov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 30% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.5 | 1.4-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.8-12.6 | 11-10.1 |
| Aces | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| Double faults | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| 1st serve % | 64.9% | 63.2% |
| Break % | 42.9% | 45.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22
H2H · Samuele Pieri 2 – 0 Petr Nesterov (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Samuele Pieri 2–0 Petr Nesterov
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/05/26 Challenger Vicenza | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 21/12/23 M15 Antalya | 2-1 | 14-13 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Samuele Pieri
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Giorgio Tabacco Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 07/07 | Martin Krumich Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 06/07 | Rudolf Molleker Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 05/07 | Noel Larwig Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 30/06 | Kilian Feldbausch Challenger Troyes · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 26/06 | Max Hans Rehberg M25 Brussels · ~Clay |
1-2 | 9-14 | L |
| 25/06 | Tim Handel M25 Brussels · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 24/06 | Kai Wehnelt M25 Brussels · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 09/06 | Oriol Roca Batalla Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 08/06 | Francesco Forti Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
Petr Nesterov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 28/06 | Giuseppe La Vela Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/06 | Sandro Kopp Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 25/06 | Tommaso Compagnucci Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 24/06 | Matteo Martineau Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/06 | Daniel Dutra Da Silva Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 18/06 | Fausto Tabacco M25 Milano · ~Clay |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 17/06 | Federico Arnaboldi M25 Milano · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 15/06 | Federico Iannaccone M25 Milano · ~Clay |
2-1 | 13-15 | W |
| 09/06 | Marco Cecchinato Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Samuele Pieri vs Petr Nesterov?
Our model gives 57% to Petr Nesterov, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.