Tennis · Challenger Zug · 19/07, 10:30
Prediction: Alexander Donski vs Marko Topo
Prediction summary
Winner
Alexander Donski
Marko Topo
Estimated games
24.3
Recent form · 10 last
Alexander Donski
4-6 (W-L)
Marko Topo
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexander Donski 1512 · Marko Topo 1469
| Alexander Donski | Marko Topo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 23% | 77% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alexander Donski (rating 1512 vs 1469).
- Alexander Donski dominates on serve: 6 aces and 42.5% break avg.
- Note: Alexander Donski makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Alexander Donski | Marko Topo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (6) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.1 | 1-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.1-12.2 | 11.8-13.4 |
| Aces | 6 | 3.9 |
| Double faults | 4.3 | 3.9 |
| 1st serve % | 75.3% | 67% |
| Break % | 42.5% | 30.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexander Donski
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg Challenger Iasi · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 06/07 | Jiri Cizek Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 05/07 | Erik Grevelius Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/06 | Max Hans Rehberg Challenger Poznan · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Filip Pieczonka Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 10/06 | Joao Lucas Reis da Silva Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 07/06 | Philip Henning Challenger Centurion · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 06/06 | Khololwam Montsi Challenger Centurion · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 05/06 | Tuncay Duran Challenger Centurion · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 04/06 | Edward Winter Challenger Centurion · Hard |
2-1 | 20-18 | W |
Marko Topo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli ATP Umag · Clay |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 12/07 | Lukas Neumayer ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 01/07 | Lorenzo Giustino Challenger Troyes · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 30/06 | Leo Raquillet Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 24/06 | Martin Krumich Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/06 | Ilia Simakin Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 14/06 | Ryan Seggerman Challenger Parma · Clay |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 08/06 | Federico Cina Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 03/06 | Emilio Nava Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 01/06 | Lorenzo Giustino Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexander Donski vs Marko Topo?
Our model gives 62% to Marko Topo, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.