Tennis · M25 Gandia · 15/07, 08:00
Prediction: Pablo Aunion vs Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento
Prediction summary
Winner
Pablo Aunion
Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento
Estimated games
20.8
Recent form · 10 last
Pablo Aunion
6-4 (W-L)
Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Pablo Aunion
1–0
Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Pablo Aunion 1530 · Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento 1496
| Pablo Aunion | Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 69% | 31% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Pablo Aunion 1–0 Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento (1).
Statistics
| Pablo Aunion | Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 71% (7) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.9 | 1.1-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.1-8.8 | 9.3-10.8 |
| Aces | 2 | 1.2 |
| Double faults | 3.5 | 1.6 |
| 1st serve % | 68.3% | 60.2% |
| Break % | 42.4% | 29.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.8
H2H · Pablo Aunion 1 – 0 Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Pablo Aunion 1–0 Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/06/26 M15 Mungia-Laukariz | 2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Pablo Aunion
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Mustapha El Natour M25 Gandia |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 06/07 | Hamish Stewart M25 Roda de Bara |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 29/06 | Rodrigo Fernandes M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-11 | L |
| 17/06 | Sergi Perez Contri M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 16/06 | Maximilian Figl M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 15/06 | Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 14/06 | Marc Martin Roca M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
2-1 | 9-10 | W |
| 28/05 | Denis Klok M25 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-7 | L |
| 27/05 | William Mirarchi M25 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 26/05 | Ognjen Jagrovic M25 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Martins Rocens M25 Gandia |
2-1 | 9-10 | W |
| 02/07 | Oscar Jose Gutierrez M15 Getxo · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Luis Garcia Paez M15 Getxo · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 29/06 | Esteban Talavera Cortes M15 Getxo · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 15/06 | Pablo Aunion M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 14/06 | Darrshan Suresh M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 04/05 | Ivan Ivanov M25 Sabadell · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/04 | Lucca Helguera Casado M25 Castelldefels · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 28/04 | Nicolas Rafael Goldberg Alviani M25 Castelldefels · ~Clay |
2-1 | 12-12 | W |
| 01/04 | Marcel Zielinski M25 Reus · ~Clay |
1-2 | 19-19 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Pablo Aunion vs Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento?
Our model gives 63% to Pablo Aunion, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.