Tennis · M25 Gandia · 14/07, 09:00
Prediction: Pablo Aunion vs Mustapha El Natour
Prediction summary
Winner
Pablo Aunion
Mustapha El Natour
Estimated games
20.4
Recent form · 10 last
Pablo Aunion
6-4 (W-L)
Mustapha El Natour
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Pablo Aunion 1519 · Mustapha El Natour 1451
| Pablo Aunion | Mustapha El Natour | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 88% | 12% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pablo Aunion (rating 1519 vs 1451).
- Note: Mustapha El Natour makes many double faults (4.9/match).
Statistics
| Pablo Aunion | Mustapha El Natour | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 63% (8) | 0% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.1 | 0.8-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.4-10 | 7.1-9.9 |
| Aces | 2.1 | 1.5 |
| Double faults | 3.5 | 4.9 |
| 1st serve % | 66.6% | 59.4% |
| Break % | 40.5% | 35.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Pablo Aunion
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Hamish Stewart M25 Roda de Bara |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 29/06 | Rodrigo Fernandes M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-11 | L |
| 17/06 | Sergi Perez Contri M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 16/06 | Maximilian Figl M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 15/06 | Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 14/06 | Marc Martin Roca M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
2-1 | 9-10 | W |
| 28/05 | Denis Klok M25 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-7 | L |
| 27/05 | William Mirarchi M25 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 26/05 | Ognjen Jagrovic M25 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 20/05 | Max Wiskandt M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
Mustapha El Natour
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06 | Pablo Martinez Gomez M25 Martos · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 10/06 | Esteban Talavera Cortes M25 Martos · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/06 | Martins Rocens M25 Martos · ~Hard |
2-1 | 11-9 | W |
| 12/05 | Aleksandar Mihailovic M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 8-10 | L |
| 21/04 | Rocco Valente M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 7-10 | L |
| 15/04 | Leonardo Rossi M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-11 | L |
| 07/04 | Keshav Chopra M25 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 22/03 | Dali Blanch Challenger Alicante · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 07/01 | Ergi Kirkin M25 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 2-11 | L |
| 06/01 | Mahmoud Chetouane M25 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Pablo Aunion vs Mustapha El Natour?
Our model gives 75% to Pablo Aunion, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.