Tennis · M25 Gandia · 15/07, 10:00
Prediction: Andrey Chepelev vs Mario Arce Fernandez
Prediction summary
Winner
Andrey Chepelev
Mario Arce Fernandez
Estimated games
20.3
Recent form · 10 last
Andrey Chepelev
5-5 (W-L)
Mario Arce Fernandez
1-9 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Andrey Chepelev 1545 · Mario Arce Fernandez 1448
| Andrey Chepelev | Mario Arce Fernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 36% |
| Market | 91% | 9% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Andrey Chepelev (rating 1545 vs 1448).
- Andrey Chepelev is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Statistics
| Andrey Chepelev | Mario Arce Fernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (10) | 20% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-0.9 | 0.6-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.9-9.1 | 8.6-10.8 |
| Aces | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| Double faults | 2 | 3.5 |
| 1st serve % | 66.5% | 65.8% |
| Break % | 52.5% | 37.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Andrey Chepelev
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Hugo Gaston Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/07 | Denis Yevseyev Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 05/07 | John Sperle Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/07 | Kalin Ivanovski M25 Skopje · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/06 | Bozo Barun M25 Zagreb · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 25/06 | Duje Markovina M25 Zagreb · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 24/06 | Ivan Sabanov M25 Zagreb · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/06 | Andrej Nedic M25 Samobor · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 19/06 | Mili Poljicak M25 Samobor · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/06 | Luca Castagnola M25 Samobor · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Mario Arce Fernandez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Anton Arzhankin M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Marcel Zielinski M15 Getxo · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 29/06 | Luis Garcia Paez M15 Getxo · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/06 | Esteban Talavera Cortes M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 04/05 | Esteban Talavera Cortes M25 Loule · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-10 | L |
| 20/04 | Justas Trainauskas M15 Sanxenxo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 15/04 | Pavel Lagutin M15 Ceuta · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 14/04 | Jose Dominguez Alonso M15 Ceuta · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 13/04 | Ilan Hediger M15 Ceuta · ~Hard |
2-1 | 9-9 | W |
| 10/02 | Sergi Fita Juan M15 Almoradi · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-11 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Andrey Chepelev vs Mario Arce Fernandez?
Our model gives 78% to Andrey Chepelev, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.