Handball · Spain Liga Asobal · 14/11, 18:00

Prediction: Atletico Valladolid vs CMB Sporting Alicante

Team pages: Atletico Valladolid · CMB Sporting Alicante

Prediction summary

Estimated points

62.5Total

Atletico Valladolid32.8

CMB Sporting Alicante29.7

1X2

78% 22%

Atletico Valladolid CMB Sporting Alicante

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Valladolid 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWDL

CMB Sporting Alicante 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LWWLLLWLLW

Head-to-head

Atletico Valladolid 2–0 CMB Sporting Alicante (2 last)

Atletico Valladolid31-30CMB Sporting Alicante
CMB Sporting Alicante25-27Atletico Valladolid

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Valladolid 1570 · CMB Sporting Alicante 1472

	Atletico Valladolid	CMB Sporting Alicante
Our model	72%	28%
Market	74%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 62.5 points · Bet365 line 59.5 · +3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points62.5Atletico Valladolid 32.8 · CMB Sporting Alicante 29.7

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Valladolid (rating 1570 vs 1472).
Atletico Valladolid is a clear favourite (78% market).
H2H favours Atletico Valladolid: 2-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Atletico Valladolid	CMB Sporting Alicante
Points F\|A (Last 10)	32.9 / 29.4	30.5 / 32.6
Points F\|A (Last 5)	33.2 / 30	29.4 / 32
Est. result	33	30

Est. total62.5

Line O/U59.5

Diff.3

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.30

X11.00

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-3.5)1.80

2 (+3.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 59.51.88

Under 59.51.88

Diff.: 3.2 · Est. total: 62.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.30 → 1.30	Bet365 1.30
X	11.00 → 11.00	Bet365 11.00
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 4.2%

Time*	1	X	2
17:31 +48’	1.30	11.00	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Valladolid 2–0–0 CMB Sporting Alicante

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Spain Liga Asobal	Atletico Valladolid	31-30	CMB Sporting Alicante
18/10/25 Spain Liga Asobal	CMB Sporting Alicante	25-27	Atletico Valladolid

Standings · Spain Liga Asobal

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Barcelona	8	8	0	0	325	221	16
2	Bidasoa Irun	8	8	0	0	283	243	16
3	Atletico Valladolid	8	6	1	1	265	232	13
4	BM Logrono La Rioja	8	5	2	1	275	265	12
5	BM Torrelavega	8	5	1	2	250	223	11
6	BM Granollers	8	5	1	2	263	255	11
7	Caserio Ciudad Real	8	3	2	3	239	254	8
8	Ademar Leon	8	3	0	5	280	283	6
9	BM Triana	8	3	0	5	253	268	6
10	Ciudad Encantada	8	2	2	4	260	279	6
11	CMB Sporting Alicante	8	3	0	5	239	265	6
12	Puerto Sagunto	8	2	1	5	237	240	5
13	Villa De Aranda	8	1	2	5	238	270	4
14	Angel Ximenez-Puente Genil	8	1	1	6	230	266	3
15	BM Nava	8	1	1	6	242	288	3
16	BM Cangas	8	1	0	7	252	279	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Valladolid	CMB Sporting Alicante
BM Torrelavega	28-29 L	32-29 W
BM Nava	35-35 D	32-34 L
Caserio Ciudad Real	30-26 W	29-35 L
BM Cangas	40-36 W	31-27 W
Puerto Sagunto	37-30 W	22-18 W
Ademar Leon	28-27 W	32-35 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Valladolid (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Valladolid

WWWWWWWWDL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
30/10	BM Torrelavega Spain Liga Asobal	28-29	L
24/10	BM Nava Spain Liga Asobal	35-35	D
17/10	Caserio Ciudad Real Spain Liga Asobal	30-26	W
11/10	Angel Ximenez-Puente Genil Spain Liga Asobal	33-24	W
02/10	BM Cangas Spain Liga Asobal	40-36	W
27/09	Puerto Sagunto Spain Liga Asobal	37-30	W
19/09	Villa De Aranda Spain Liga Asobal	34-26	W
12/09	Ciudad Encantada Spain Liga Asobal	28-26	W
31/05	BM Nava Spain Liga Asobal	36-35	W
23/05	Ademar Leon Spain Liga Asobal	28-27	W

CMB Sporting Alicante

LWWLLLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
01/11	BM Cangas Spain Liga Asobal	31-27	W
25/10	Ademar Leon Spain Liga Asobal	32-35	L
17/10	Bidasoa Irun Spain Liga Asobal	31-34	L
09/10	Puerto Sagunto Spain Liga Asobal	22-18	W
03/10	FC Barcelona Spain Liga Asobal	31-46	L
26/09	BM Granollers Spain Liga Asobal	31-41	L
20/09	Caserio Ciudad Real Spain Liga Asobal	29-35	L
12/09	BM Torrelavega Spain Liga Asobal	32-29	W
31/05	BM Huesca Spain Liga Asobal	34-27	W
22/05	BM Nava Spain Liga Asobal	32-34	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Valladolid vs CMB Sporting Alicante?

Our model gives 78% to Atletico Valladolid.

How many points are expected in Atletico Valladolid vs CMB Sporting Alicante?

The model estimates 62.5 total points (Atletico Valladolid 32.8 · CMB Sporting Alicante 29.7).