Handball · Portugal Liga Andebol · 12/11, 20:30

Prediction: Madeira vs Sporting Clube

Team pages: Madeira · Sporting Clube

Prediction summary

Estimated points

66.2Total

Madeira31.3

Sporting Clube34.9

1X2

27% 73%

Madeira Sporting Clube

Recent form · 10 last

Madeira 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWLWWWW

Sporting Clube 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWWL

Head-to-head

Madeira 0–6 Sporting Clube (6 last)

Sporting Clube42-28Madeira
Madeira37-40Sporting Clube
Sporting Clube41-31Madeira
Madeira29-36Sporting Clube
Madeira23-32Sporting Clube
Sporting Clube35-24Madeira

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Madeira 1572 · Sporting Clube 1630

	Madeira	Sporting Clube
Our model	52%	48%
Market	9%	85%

Estimated total (ours) 66.2 points · Bet365 line 66.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points66.2Madeira 31.3 · Sporting Clube 34.9

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sporting Clube (rating 1572 vs 1630).
Sporting Clube is a clear favourite (73% market).
H2H favours Sporting Clube: 6-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Madeira	Sporting Clube
Points F\|A (Last 10)	31.7 / 27.9	40.8 / 27.7
Points F\|A (Last 5)	29.8 / 27.4	41.4 / 28.6
Est. result	31	35

Est. total66.2

Line O/U66.5

Diff.0.3

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

19.50

X16.00

21.06

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+8.5)1.75

2 (-8.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 66.51.85

Under 66.51.85

Diff.: 2.45 · Est. total: 64.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	9.50 → 9.50	Bet365 9.50
X	16.00 → 16.00	Bet365 16.00
2	1.06 → 1.06	Bet365 1.06

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
01:32 +44’	9.50	16.00	1.06

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Madeira 0–0–6 Sporting Clube

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Portugal Cup	Sporting Clube	42-28	Madeira
15/04/26 Portugal Cup	Madeira	37-40	Sporting Clube
23/11/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	Sporting Clube	41-31	Madeira
03/09/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	Madeira	29-36	Sporting Clube
24/05/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	Madeira	23-32	Sporting Clube
05/04/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	Sporting Clube	35-24	Madeira

Standings · Portugal Liga Andebol

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Porto	10	10	0	0	404	269	30
2	Sporting Clube	10	9	0	1	408	277	28
3	Madeira	10	9	0	1	317	279	28
4	SL Benfica	11	8	0	3	380	307	27
5	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao	11	6	0	5	343	353	23
6	ABC Braga	11	5	0	6	319	344	21
7	Aguas Santas	10	5	0	5	294	293	20
8	Belenenses	11	4	0	7	302	333	19
9	Vitoria SC	11	3	1	7	302	363	18
10	GC Santo Tirso	11	2	0	9	294	364	15
11	AA Avanca	11	1	1	9	265	360	14
12	AD Carvalhos	11	1	0	10	282	368	13

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Madeira	Sporting Clube
Belenenses	26-22 W	43-27 W
SL Benfica	28-27 W	32-27 W
ABC Braga	32-31 W	43-32 W
AA Avanca	36-22 W	46-23 W
FC Porto	27-35 L	32-34 L
Povoa Andebol/Bodegao	38-37 W	43-31 W
Aguas Santas	29-27 W	37-28 W
Vitoria SC	38-37 W	51-23 W
GC Santo Tirso	32-20 W	37-25 W
AD Carvalhos	31-21 W	44-27 W
Record vs common	9 W 0 D 1 L	9 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Sporting Clube (9 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Madeira

WWWWWLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
01/11	Belenenses Portugal Liga Andebol	26-22	W
25/10	SL Benfica Portugal Liga Andebol	28-27	W
20/10	ABC Braga Portugal Liga Andebol	32-31	W
10/10	AA Avanca Portugal Liga Andebol	36-22	W
27/09	FC Porto Portugal Liga Andebol	27-35	L
23/09	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao Portugal Liga Andebol	38-37	W
19/09	Aguas Santas Portugal Liga Andebol	29-27	W
12/09	Vitoria SC Portugal Liga Andebol	38-37	W
05/09	GC Santo Tirso Portugal Liga Andebol	32-20	W
29/08	AD Carvalhos Portugal Liga Andebol	31-21	W

Sporting Clube

WWWWWWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
01/11	FC Porto Portugal Liga Andebol	32-34	L
25/10	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao Portugal Liga Andebol	43-31	W
18/10	Aguas Santas Portugal Liga Andebol	37-28	W
05/10	Vitoria SC Portugal Liga Andebol	51-23	W
26/09	AD Carvalhos Portugal Liga Andebol	44-27	W
23/09	Belenenses Portugal Liga Andebol	43-27	W
19/09	SL Benfica Portugal Liga Andebol	32-27	W
13/09	ABC Braga Portugal Liga Andebol	43-32	W
29/08	GC Santo Tirso Portugal Liga Andebol	37-25	W
26/08	AA Avanca Portugal Liga Andebol	46-23	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Madeira vs Sporting Clube?

Our model gives 73% to Sporting Clube.

How many points are expected in Madeira vs Sporting Clube?

The model estimates 66.2 total points (Madeira 31.3 · Sporting Clube 34.9).