Handball · Portugal 2a Divisao · 31/10, 19:00

Prediction: Estrela Amadora vs Alto Moinho

Team pages: Estrela Amadora · Alto Moinho

Prediction summary

Estimated points

56Total

Estrela Amadora28.2

Alto Moinho27.7

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

35% 65%

Estrela Amadora Alto Moinho

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Markets

Over 50.5 points 85%

Recent form · 10 last

Estrela Amadora 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLWLLL

Alto Moinho 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WWDDLLDWLL

Head-to-head

Estrela Amadora 3–1 Alto Moinho (4 last)

Estrela Amadora37-28Alto Moinho
Estrela Amadora32-28Alto Moinho
Estrela Amadora19-20Alto Moinho
Alto Moinho21-23Estrela Amadora

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Estrela Amadora 1432 · Alto Moinho 1477

	Estrela Amadora	Alto Moinho
Our model	54%	46%
Market	20%	70%

Estimated total (ours) 56 points · Bet365 line 50.5 · +5.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points56Estrela Amadora 28.2 · Alto Moinho 27.7

Match keys

H2H favours Estrela Amadora: 3-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Estrela Amadora	Alto Moinho
Points F\|A (Last 10)	26.2 / 28.6	27.4 / 28.7
Points F\|A (Last 5)	26.4 / 28.4	27.4 / 30.2
Est. result	28	28

Est. total56

Line O/U50.5

Diff.5.5

Over / Under85% / 15%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

14.50

X9.00

21.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+3.5)1.85

2 (-3.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 50.51.75

Under 50.51.95

Diff.: 4.95 · Est. total: 55.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
X	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00
2	1.30 → 1.30	Bet365 1.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.3%

Time*	1	X	2
09:37 +46’	4.50	9.00	1.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Estrela Amadora 3–0–1 Alto Moinho

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/01/26 Portugal 2a Divisao	Estrela Amadora	37-28	Alto Moinho
01/02/25 Portugal 2a Divisao	Estrela Amadora	32-28	Alto Moinho
15/04/23 Portugal 2a Divisao	Estrela Amadora	19-20	Alto Moinho
26/11/22 Portugal 2a Divisao	Alto Moinho	21-23	Estrela Amadora

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Estrela Amadora	Alto Moinho
CSS Pinhal Frades	30-31 L	28-28 D
GM 1 Dezembro	24-28 L	26-36 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Estrela Amadora

LLLLLLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
05/10	CSS Pinhal Frades Portugal 2a Divisao	30-31	L
26/09	GM 1 Dezembro Portugal 2a Divisao	24-28	L
13/06	Estarreja AC Portugal 2a Divisao	26-30	L
06/06	Juve Lis Portugal 2a Divisao	27-26	W
04/06	AA Sao Mamede Portugal 2a Divisao	25-27	L
30/05	SL Benfica B Portugal 2a Divisao	28-29	L
09/05	AC Fafe Portugal 2a Divisao	27-30	L
02/05	Estarreja AC Portugal 2a Divisao	27-28	L
11/04	SL Benfica B Portugal 2a Divisao	26-32	L
03/04	AA Sao Mamede Portugal 2a Divisao	22-25	L

Alto Moinho

WWDDLLDWLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
10/10	GM 1 Dezembro Portugal 2a Divisao	26-36	L
05/10	CA Rangers Telheiras Portugal 2a Divisao	27-30	L
26/09	CD Marienses Portugal 2a Divisao	26-21	W
13/06	CA Rangers Telheiras Portugal 2a Divisao	32-32	D
10/06	Samora Correia Portugal 2a Divisao	26-32	L
06/06	GM 1 Dezembro Portugal 2a Divisao	27-30	L
03/06	CSS Pinhal Frades Portugal 2a Divisao	28-28	D
30/05	Club Naval Setubalense Portugal 2a Divisao	28-28	D
22/05	C. Oriental Lisboa Portugal 2a Divisao	28-27	W
09/05	UJ Alverca Portugal 2a Divisao	26-23	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Estrela Amadora vs Alto Moinho?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Estrela Amadora 35% · Alto Moinho 65%).

How many points are expected in Estrela Amadora vs Alto Moinho?

The model estimates 56 total points (Estrela Amadora 28.2 · Alto Moinho 27.7).