Handball · Denmark Handboldligaen · 01/11, 20:00

Prediction: Fredericia HK vs Mors-Thy Handbold

Team pages: Fredericia HK · Mors-Thy Handbold

Prediction summary

Estimated points

60.7Total

Fredericia HK32.2

Mors-Thy Handbold28.5

1X2

81% 19%

Fredericia HK Mors-Thy Handbold

Markets

Under 63.5 points 70%

Recent form · 10 last

Fredericia HK 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWLLWWWW

Mors-Thy Handbold 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

WLLWWLLLLL

Head-to-head

Fredericia HK 1–2–3 Mors-Thy Handbold (6 last)

Fredericia HK33-31Mors-Thy Handbold
Mors-Thy Handbold33-32Fredericia HK
Fredericia HK32-35Mors-Thy Handbold
Mors-Thy Handbold33-33Fredericia HK
Fredericia HK25-25Mors-Thy Handbold
Mors-Thy Handbold25-24Fredericia HK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fredericia HK 1540 · Mors-Thy Handbold 1445

	Fredericia HK	Mors-Thy Handbold
Our model	72%	28%
Market	81%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 60.7 points · Bet365 line 63.5 · -2.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points60.7Fredericia HK 32.2 · Mors-Thy Handbold 28.5

Over / Under 63.5Under · 70%recent trend · ~61.5 pts · strength 2

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fredericia HK (rating 1540 vs 1445).
Fredericia HK is a clear favourite (81% market).
H2H favours Mors-Thy Handbold: 3-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Fredericia HK	Mors-Thy Handbold
Points F\|A (Last 10)	30.7 / 28.3	29.3 / 32.8
Points F\|A (Last 5)	32.4 / 28	26.4 / 34.4
Est. result	32	29

Est. total60.7

Line O/U63.5

Diff.2.8

Over / Under30% / 70%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.16

X14.00

28.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-5.5)1.85

2 (+5.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 63.51.88

Under 63.51.88

Diff.: 2.95 · Est. total: 60.55

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 09:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.16 → 1.16	Bet365 1.16
X	14.00 → 14.00	Bet365 14.00
2	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 5.8%

Time*	1	X	2
10:59 +19’	1.16	14.00	8.00
08:15 +3’	1.15▼	14.00	8.50▲
09:06 +12’	1.16▲	14.00	8.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Fredericia HK 1–2–3 Mors-Thy Handbold

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 Denmark Handboldligaen	Fredericia HK	33-31	Mors-Thy Handbold
22/11/25 Denmark Handboldligaen	Mors-Thy Handbold	33-32	Fredericia HK
30/03/25 Denmark Handboldligaen	Fredericia HK	32-35	Mors-Thy Handbold
03/11/24 Denmark Handboldligaen	Mors-Thy Handbold	33-33	Fredericia HK
12/12/23 Denmark Handboldligaen	Fredericia HK	25-25	Mors-Thy Handbold
17/09/23 Denmark Handboldligaen	Mors-Thy Handbold	25-24	Fredericia HK

Standings · Denmark Handboldligaen

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	GOG	11	10	1	0	380	318	21
2	Aalborg Handbold	11	8	1	2	352	332	17
3	Ribe Esbjerg HH	11	7	1	3	356	340	15
4	SonderjyskE	11	7	0	4	345	333	14
5	Skjern Handbold	11	7	0	4	358	333	14
6	Fredericia HK	11	7	0	4	338	307	14
7	Skanderborg Handbold	11	7	0	4	365	354	14
8	Bjerringbro-Silkeborg	11	6	1	4	349	349	13
9	Nordsjaelland Handbold	11	4	1	6	331	336	9
10	Team Tvis Holstebro	11	3	1	7	333	351	7
11	Mors-Thy Handbold	11	3	0	8	325	362	6
12	KIF Kolding Kbh.	11	2	1	8	343	381	5
13	TMS Ringsted	11	1	1	9	332	370	3
14	Skive FH	11	1	0	10	354	395	2

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fredericia HK	Mors-Thy Handbold
KIF Kolding Kbh.	32-31 W	34-31 W
Skive FH	36-29 W	34-30 W
Skanderborg Handbold	31-29 W	29-38 L
SonderjyskE	30-31 L	24-34 L
GOG	28-32 L	29-32 L
TMS Ringsted	31-26 W	32-28 W
Bjerringbro-Silkeborg	26-28 L	32-35 L
Aalborg Handbold	33-26 W	26-37 L
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Fredericia HK (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fredericia HK

LWLWLLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
22/10	KIF Kolding Kbh. Denmark Handboldligaen	32-31	W
18/10	Skive FH Denmark Handboldligaen	36-29	W
11/10	Skanderborg Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	31-29	W
03/10	Team Tvis Holstebro Denmark Handboldligaen	33-20	W
28/09	SonderjyskE Denmark Handboldligaen	30-31	L
19/09	GOG Denmark Handboldligaen	28-32	L
11/09	TMS Ringsted Denmark Handboldligaen	31-26	W
07/09	Bjerringbro-Silkeborg Denmark Handboldligaen	26-28	L
02/09	Aalborg Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	33-26	W
30/08	Ribe Esbjerg HH Denmark Handboldligaen	27-31	L

Mors-Thy Handbold

WLLWWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
21/10	Bjerringbro-Silkeborg Denmark Handboldligaen	32-35	L
18/10	Aalborg Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	26-37	L
10/10	SonderjyskE Denmark Handboldligaen	24-34	L
03/10	Nordsjaelland Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	21-28	L
26/09	Skanderborg Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	29-38	L
19/09	TMS Ringsted Denmark Handboldligaen	32-28	W
11/09	Skive FH Denmark Handboldligaen	34-30	W
06/09	GOG Denmark Handboldligaen	29-32	L
02/09	Skjern Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	32-35	L
30/08	KIF Kolding Kbh. Denmark Handboldligaen	34-31	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fredericia HK vs Mors-Thy Handbold?

Our model gives 81% to Fredericia HK.

How many points are expected in Fredericia HK vs Mors-Thy Handbold?

The model estimates 60.7 total points (Fredericia HK 32.2 · Mors-Thy Handbold 28.5).

Over or under 63.5 points?

Recent history points to under 63.5 points (70%).