Handball · Portugal 2a Divisao · 19/09, 22:00

Prediction: Aguas Santas B vs AC Vermoim

Prediction summary

Estimated points

58Total

Aguas Santas B29.9

AC Vermoim28.1

1X2

72% 28%

Aguas Santas B AC Vermoim

Markets

Over 55.5 points 65%

Recent form · 10 last

Aguas Santas B 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWDWLW

AC Vermoim 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DDLWWLDWWL

Head-to-head

Aguas Santas B 3–3 AC Vermoim (6 last)

AC Vermoim35-26Aguas Santas B
Aguas Santas B32-28AC Vermoim
AC Vermoim29-26Aguas Santas B
Aguas Santas B33-30AC Vermoim
AC Vermoim30-27Aguas Santas B
AC Vermoim31-36Aguas Santas B

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aguas Santas B 1556 · AC Vermoim 1505

	Aguas Santas B	AC Vermoim
Our model	67%	33%
Market	69%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 58 points · Bet365 line 55.5 · +2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points58Aguas Santas B 29.9 · AC Vermoim 28.1

Over / Under 55.5Over · 65%recent trend · ~59.1 pts · strength 4

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aguas Santas B (rating 1556 vs 1505).
Aguas Santas B is a clear favourite (72% market).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Aguas Santas B	AC Vermoim
Points F\|A (Last 10)	33.2 / 29.8	27.7 / 26.7
Points F\|A (Last 5)	33.2 / 32.2	27.4 / 26
Est. result	30	28

Est. total58

Line O/U55.5

Diff.2.5

Over / Under65% / 35%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.32

X9.00

24.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-3.5)1.85

2 (+3.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 55.51.85

Under 55.51.85

Diff.: 3.2 · Est. total: 58.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.32 → 1.32	Bet365 1.32
X	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00
2	4.25 → 4.25	Bet365 4.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:12 +61’	1.32	9.00	4.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Aguas Santas B 3–0–3 AC Vermoim

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
10/06/26 Portugal 2a Divisao	AC Vermoim	35-26	Aguas Santas B
01/05/26 Portugal 2a Divisao	Aguas Santas B	32-28	AC Vermoim
14/02/26 Portugal 2a Divisao	AC Vermoim	29-26	Aguas Santas B
01/05/25 Portugal 2a Divisao	Aguas Santas B	33-30	AC Vermoim
08/03/25 Portugal 2a Divisao	AC Vermoim	30-27	Aguas Santas B
15/02/25 Portugal 2a Divisao	AC Vermoim	31-36	Aguas Santas B

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aguas Santas B	AC Vermoim
CDC Santana	30-29 W	25-25 D
CD Marienses	37-27 W	27-23 W
AD Afifense	39-36 W	33-27 W
Gondomar Cultural	34-33 W	29-33 L
Padroense	37-29 W	21-23 L
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Aguas Santas B (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Aguas Santas B

WWWWWWDWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
13/06	CDC Santana Portugal 2a Divisao	30-29	W
10/06	AC Vermoim Portugal 2a Divisao	26-35	L
06/06	CD Marienses Portugal 2a Divisao	37-27	W
04/06	Academico FC Portugal 2a Divisao	34-34	D
30/05	AD Afifense Portugal 2a Divisao	39-36	W
23/05	Gondomar Cultural Portugal 2a Divisao	34-33	W
09/05	Padroense Portugal 2a Divisao	37-29	W
01/05	AC Vermoim Portugal 2a Divisao	32-28	W
17/04	Academico FC Portugal 2a Divisao	34-22	W
03/04	Gondomar Cultural Portugal 2a Divisao	29-25	W

AC Vermoim

DDLWWLDWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
13/06	Gondomar Cultural Portugal 2a Divisao	29-33	L
10/06	Aguas Santas B Portugal 2a Divisao	35-26	W
07/06	CD Marienses Portugal 2a Divisao	27-23	W
06/06	CDC Santana Portugal 2a Divisao	25-25	D
04/06	Padroense Portugal 2a Divisao	21-23	L
09/05	AD Afifense Portugal 2a Divisao	33-27	W
03/05	Gondomar Cultural Portugal 2a Divisao	25-24	W
01/05	Aguas Santas B Portugal 2a Divisao	28-32	L
25/04	CDC Santana Portugal 2a Divisao	23-23	D
18/04	Padroense Portugal 2a Divisao	31-31	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aguas Santas B vs AC Vermoim?

Our model gives 72% to Aguas Santas B.

How many points are expected in Aguas Santas B vs AC Vermoim?

The model estimates 58 total points (Aguas Santas B 29.9 · AC Vermoim 28.1).

Over or under 55.5 points?

Recent history points to over 55.5 points (65%).