Handball · Iceland Úrvalsdeild · 12/11, 19:30

Prediction: Haukar Hafnafjordur vs Thor AK

Team pages: Haukar Hafnafjordur · Thor AK

Prediction summary

Estimated points

64.3Total

Haukar Hafnafjordur34.9

Thor AK29.4

1X2

84% 16%

Haukar Hafnafjordur Thor AK

Recent form · 10 last

Haukar Hafnafjordur 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWWWWW

Thor AK 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WDLWWLLWLL

Head-to-head

Haukar Hafnafjordur 4–0 Thor AK (4 last)

Thor AK28-34Haukar Hafnafjordur
Haukar Hafnafjordur35-31Thor AK
Thor AK17-36Haukar Hafnafjordur
Haukar Hafnafjordur33-22Thor AK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Haukar Hafnafjordur 1626 · Thor AK 1490

	Haukar Hafnafjordur	Thor AK
Our model	77%	23%
Market	83%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 64.3 points · Bet365 line 62.5 · +1.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points64.3Haukar Hafnafjordur 34.9 · Thor AK 29.4

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Haukar Hafnafjordur (rating 1626 vs 1490).
Haukar Hafnafjordur is a clear favourite (84% market).
H2H favours Haukar Hafnafjordur: 4-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Haukar Hafnafjordur	Thor AK
Points F\|A (Last 10)	35.8 / 28.3	32.5 / 33.5
Points F\|A (Last 5)	36.2 / 24.6	32.6 / 36
Est. result	35	29

Est. total64.3

Line O/U62.5

Diff.1.8

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.08

X14.00

28.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-6.5)1.72

2 (+6.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 62.51.85

Under 62.51.85

Diff.: 2.55 · Est. total: 65.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 03:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.14 → 1.08▼	Bet365 1.08
X	12.00 → 14.00▲	Bet365 14.00
2	6.50 → 8.50▲	Bet365 8.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
01:56 +20’	1.14	12.00	6.50
02:47 +28’	1.08▼	14.00▲	8.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Haukar Hafnafjordur 4–0–0 Thor AK

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
04/03/26 Iceland Úrvalsdeild	Thor AK	28-34	Haukar Hafnafjordur
07/11/25 Iceland Úrvalsdeild	Haukar Hafnafjordur	35-31	Thor AK
30/04/21 Iceland Úrvalsdeild	Thor AK	17-36	Haukar Hafnafjordur
30/01/21 Iceland Úrvalsdeild	Haukar Hafnafjordur	33-22	Thor AK

Standings · Iceland Úrvalsdeild

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Haukar Hafnafjordur	9	9	0	0	323	247	18
2	Valur	9	7	0	2	339	310	14
3	FH Hafnafjordur	9	6	1	2	320	290	13
4	Knattspyrnufelag Akureyrar	9	6	0	3	295	277	12
5	UMF Afturelding	9	5	1	3	315	284	11
6	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	9	5	0	4	277	283	10
7	Vikingur	9	3	0	6	282	297	6
8	Thor AK	9	3	0	6	303	320	6
9	Fram Reykjavik	9	3	0	6	282	326	6
10	HK Kopavogs	9	3	0	6	269	298	6
11	UMF Stjarnan	9	2	1	6	291	311	5
12	UMF Selfoss	9	0	1	8	257	310	1

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Haukar Hafnafjordur	Thor AK
Knattspyrnufelag Akureyrar	36-27 W	35-31 W
HK Kopavogs	37-22 W	36-31 W
Fram Reykjavik	39-23 W	34-38 L
Vikingur	38-29 W	31-36 L
FH Hafnafjordur	35-34 W	30-37 L
UMF Afturelding	32-30 W	34-38 L
UMF Stjarnan	37-31 W	37-32 W
IBV Vestmannaeyjar	38-29 W	31-37 L
Record vs common	8 W 0 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Haukar Hafnafjordur (8 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Haukar Hafnafjordur

LWWWWWWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
31/10	Knattspyrnufelag Akureyrar Iceland Úrvalsdeild	36-27	W
28/10	HK Kopavogs Iceland Úrvalsdeild	37-22	W
20/10	Fram Reykjavik Iceland Úrvalsdeild	39-23	W
15/10	UMF Selfoss Iceland Úrvalsdeild	31-22	W
01/10	Vikingur Iceland Úrvalsdeild	38-29	W
24/09	FH Hafnafjordur Iceland Úrvalsdeild	35-34	W
16/09	UMF Afturelding Iceland Úrvalsdeild	32-30	W
11/09	UMF Stjarnan Iceland Úrvalsdeild	37-31	W
06/09	IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Úrvalsdeild	38-29	W
17/04	FH Hafnafjordur Iceland Úrvalsdeild	35-36	L

Thor AK

WDLWWLLWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
01/11	FH Hafnafjordur Iceland Úrvalsdeild	30-37	L
27/10	UMF Afturelding Iceland Úrvalsdeild	34-38	L
21/10	UMF Stjarnan Iceland Úrvalsdeild	37-32	W
16/10	IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Úrvalsdeild	31-37	L
25/09	Vikingur Iceland Úrvalsdeild	31-36	L
16/09	Knattspyrnufelag Akureyrar Iceland Úrvalsdeild	35-31	W
10/09	HK Kopavogs Iceland Úrvalsdeild	36-31	W
05/09	Fram Reykjavik Iceland Úrvalsdeild	34-38	L
12/03	Knattspyrnufelag Akureyrar Iceland Úrvalsdeild	31-31	D
09/03	UMF Afturelding Iceland Úrvalsdeild	26-24	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Haukar Hafnafjordur vs Thor AK?

Our model gives 84% to Haukar Hafnafjordur.

How many points are expected in Haukar Hafnafjordur vs Thor AK?

The model estimates 64.3 total points (Haukar Hafnafjordur 34.9 · Thor AK 29.4).