Handball · Sweden Handbollsligan · 11/11, 19:00

Prediction: Hammarby IF HF vs Lugi HF

Team pages: Hammarby IF HF · Lugi HF

Prediction summary

Estimated points

60.3Total

Hammarby IF HF31

Lugi HF29.3

1X2

72% 28%

Hammarby IF HF Lugi HF

Recent form · 10 last

Hammarby IF HF 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLWLWWWLDD

Lugi HF 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WWWLLLLLLD

Head-to-head

Hammarby IF HF 6–0 Lugi HF (6 last)

Hammarby IF HF33-23Lugi HF
Lugi HF33-36Hammarby IF HF
Hammarby IF HF30-28Lugi HF
Lugi HF27-30Hammarby IF HF
Lugi HF21-22Hammarby IF HF
Hammarby IF HF33-29Lugi HF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hammarby IF HF 1518 · Lugi HF 1453

	Hammarby IF HF	Lugi HF
Our model	69%	31%
Market	67%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 60.3 points · Bet365 line 62.5 · -2.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points60.3Hammarby IF HF 31 · Lugi HF 29.3

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hammarby IF HF (rating 1518 vs 1453).
Hammarby IF HF is a clear favourite (72% market).
H2H favours Hammarby IF HF: 6-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Hammarby IF HF	Lugi HF
Points F\|A (Last 10)	29.6 / 29.5	31.3 / 32.2
Points F\|A (Last 5)	29.6 / 28.8	31 / 33.4
Est. result	31	29

Est. total60.3

Line O/U62.5

Diff.2.2

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.35

X8.50

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-3.5)2.00

2 (+3.5)1.78

Line ⓘ

Over 62.51.88

Under 62.51.88

Diff.: 1.2 · Est. total: 61.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.35 → 1.35	Bet365 1.35
X	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.8%

Time*	1	X	2
02:04 +11’	1.35	8.50	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Hammarby IF HF 6–0–0 Lugi HF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/01/24 Sweden Handbollsligan	Hammarby IF HF	33-23	Lugi HF
24/09/23 Sweden Handbollsligan	Lugi HF	33-36	Hammarby IF HF
30/01/23 Sweden Handbollsligan	Hammarby IF HF	30-28	Lugi HF
29/10/22 Sweden Handbollsligan	Lugi HF	27-30	Hammarby IF HF
23/03/22 Sweden Handbollsligan	Lugi HF	21-22	Hammarby IF HF
11/09/21 Sweden Handbollsligan	Hammarby IF HF	33-29	Lugi HF

Standings · Sweden Handbollsligan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	HK Malmo	9	6	1	2	297	281	13
2	Ystads IF HF	8	5	1	2	247	218	11
3	IK Savehof	7	5	1	1	212	191	11
4	Amo HK	9	5	1	3	289	275	11
5	Alingsas HK	8	5	0	3	248	228	10
6	IFK Skovde HK	8	4	2	2	261	254	10
7	Hammarby IF HF	9	4	2	3	263	257	10
8	IFK Kristianstad	7	5	0	2	208	204	10
9	HIF Karlskrona	8	3	1	4	245	252	7
10	OV Helsingborg	8	2	3	3	226	240	7
11	Onnereds HK	9	2	2	5	269	279	6
12	Lugi HF	9	2	1	6	278	294	5
13	Skanela IF	9	2	0	7	261	291	4
14	IF Hallby HK	8	0	1	7	220	260	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hammarby IF HF	Lugi HF
HIF Karlskrona	28-28 D	30-32 L
HK Malmo	37-37 D	31-33 L
Ystads IF HF	24-26 L	30-30 D
Alingsas HK	27-24 W	37-39 L
Onnereds HK	32-29 W	32-37 L
IF Hallby HK	38-32 W	25-24 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Hammarby IF HF (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hammarby IF HF

LLWLWWWLDD

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
31/10	HIF Karlskrona Sweden Handbollsligan	28-28	D
28/10	HK Malmo Sweden Handbollsligan	37-37	D
25/10	Ystads IF HF Sweden Handbollsligan	24-26	L
21/10	Alingsas HK Sweden Handbollsligan	27-24	W
16/10	Onnereds HK Sweden Handbollsligan	32-29	W
11/10	OV Helsingborg Sweden Handbollsligan	26-23	W
02/10	IK Savehof Sweden Handbollsligan	24-30	L
26/09	IF Hallby HK Sweden Handbollsligan	38-32	W
23/09	IFK Kristianstad Sweden Handbollsligan	27-28	L
20/04	IK Savehof Sweden Handbollsligan	33-38	L

Lugi HF

WWWLLLLLLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
01/11	Ystads IF HF Sweden Handbollsligan	30-30	D
28/10	Onnereds HK Sweden Handbollsligan	32-37	L
25/10	IFK Skovde HK Sweden Handbollsligan	32-35	L
21/10	HK Malmo Sweden Handbollsligan	31-33	L
16/10	HIF Karlskrona Sweden Handbollsligan	30-32	L
09/10	Amo HK Sweden Handbollsligan	30-35	L
04/10	Alingsas HK Sweden Handbollsligan	37-39	L
28/09	Skanela IF Sweden Handbollsligan	31-29	W
23/09	IF Hallby HK Sweden Handbollsligan	25-24	W
10/04	VasterasIrsta HF Sweden Handbollsligan	35-28	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hammarby IF HF vs Lugi HF?

Our model gives 72% to Hammarby IF HF.

How many points are expected in Hammarby IF HF vs Lugi HF?

The model estimates 60.3 total points (Hammarby IF HF 31 · Lugi HF 29.3).