Handball · Sweden Handbollsligan · 14/11, 16:00

Prediction: Lugi HF vs OV Helsingborg

Team pages: Lugi HF · OV Helsingborg

Prediction summary

Estimated points

59.6Total

Lugi HF29.8

OV Helsingborg29.8

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

43% 57%

Lugi HF OV Helsingborg

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

Lugi HF 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

WWLLLLLLDL

OV Helsingborg 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDLWLDWLDW

Head-to-head

Lugi HF 2–4 OV Helsingborg (6 last)

Lugi HF23-25OV Helsingborg
OV Helsingborg28-31Lugi HF
Lugi HF27-30OV Helsingborg
OV Helsingborg34-30Lugi HF
Lugi HF21-24OV Helsingborg
OV Helsingborg24-29Lugi HF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lugi HF 1446 · OV Helsingborg 1516

	Lugi HF	OV Helsingborg
Our model	50%	50%
Market	33%	55%

Estimated total (ours) 59.6 points · Bet365 line 62.5 · -2.9

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points59.6Lugi HF 29.8 · OV Helsingborg 29.8

Match keys

H2H favours OV Helsingborg: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Lugi HF	OV Helsingborg
Points F\|A (Last 10)	30.8 / 32.9	28.9 / 29.2
Points F\|A (Last 5)	31 / 34	28.8 / 29.8
Est. result	30	30

Est. total59.6

Line O/U62.5

Diff.2.9

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

12.70

X7.50

21.62

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.85

2 (-1.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 62.51.90

Under 62.51.85

Diff.: 1.6 · Est. total: 60.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 11:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.70▼	Bet365 2.70
X	8.00 → 7.50▼	Bet365 7.50
2	1.60 → 1.62▲	Bet365 1.62

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
01:32 +44’	2.90	8.00	1.60
11:02 +14’	2.70▼	7.50▼	1.62▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Lugi HF 2–0–4 OV Helsingborg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/02/23 Sweden Handbollsligan	Lugi HF	23-25	OV Helsingborg
24/10/22 Sweden Handbollsligan	OV Helsingborg	28-31	Lugi HF
19/02/21 Sweden Handbollsligan	Lugi HF	27-30	OV Helsingborg
04/10/20 Sweden Handbollsligan	OV Helsingborg	34-30	Lugi HF
14/02/20 Sweden Handbollsligan	Lugi HF	21-24	OV Helsingborg
22/11/19 Sweden Handbollsligan	OV Helsingborg	24-29	Lugi HF

Standings · Sweden Handbollsligan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	HK Malmo	10	7	1	2	326	308	15
2	Ystads IF HF	9	6	1	2	274	241	13
3	IK Savehof	8	6	1	1	245	221	13
4	Alingsas HK	9	6	0	3	277	254	12
5	Hammarby IF HF	10	5	2	3	298	287	12
6	IFK Kristianstad	8	6	0	2	247	237	12
7	Amo HK	10	5	1	4	322	314	11
8	IFK Skovde HK	9	4	2	3	287	283	10
9	OV Helsingborg	9	3	3	3	254	265	9
10	HIF Karlskrona	9	3	1	5	275	285	7
11	Onnereds HK	10	2	2	6	294	307	6
12	Lugi HF	10	2	1	7	308	329	5
13	Skanela IF	10	2	0	8	284	318	4
14	IF Hallby HK	9	0	1	8	247	289	1

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lugi HF	OV Helsingborg
Hammarby IF HF	30-35 L	23-26 L
Ystads IF HF	30-30 D	22-37 L
Onnereds HK	32-37 L	28-25 W
IFK Skovde HK	32-35 L	29-29 D
HK Malmo	31-33 L	25-32 L
Amo HK	30-35 L	32-32 D
Skanela IF	31-29 W	30-26 W
IF Hallby HK	25-24 W	39-32 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 5 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: OV Helsingborg (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lugi HF

WWLLLLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
11/11	Hammarby IF HF Sweden Handbollsligan	30-35	L
01/11	Ystads IF HF Sweden Handbollsligan	30-30	D
28/10	Onnereds HK Sweden Handbollsligan	32-37	L
25/10	IFK Skovde HK Sweden Handbollsligan	32-35	L
21/10	HK Malmo Sweden Handbollsligan	31-33	L
16/10	HIF Karlskrona Sweden Handbollsligan	30-32	L
09/10	Amo HK Sweden Handbollsligan	30-35	L
04/10	Alingsas HK Sweden Handbollsligan	37-39	L
28/09	Skanela IF Sweden Handbollsligan	31-29	W
23/09	IF Hallby HK Sweden Handbollsligan	25-24	W

OV Helsingborg

WDLWLDWLDW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
11/11	Onnereds HK Sweden Handbollsligan	28-25	W
01/11	IK Savehof Sweden Handbollsligan	26-26	D
29/10	Ystads IF HF Sweden Handbollsligan	22-37	L
26/10	IF Hallby HK Sweden Handbollsligan	39-32	W
15/10	IFK Skovde HK Sweden Handbollsligan	29-29	D
11/10	Hammarby IF HF Sweden Handbollsligan	23-26	L
01/10	Skanela IF Sweden Handbollsligan	30-26	W
26/09	HK Malmo Sweden Handbollsligan	25-32	L
23/09	Amo HK Sweden Handbollsligan	32-32	D
14/04	HK Varberg Sweden Handbollsligan	35-27	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lugi HF vs OV Helsingborg?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Lugi HF 43% · OV Helsingborg 57%).

How many points are expected in Lugi HF vs OV Helsingborg?

The model estimates 59.6 total points (Lugi HF 29.8 · OV Helsingborg 29.8).