Handball · Portugal Liga Andebol · 14/11, 19:30

Prediction: Vitoria SC vs Belenenses

Team pages: Vitoria SC · Belenenses

Prediction summary

Estimated points

58.4Total

Vitoria SC28.7

Belenenses29.8

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

57% 43%

Vitoria SC Belenenses

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Markets

Over 54.5 points 70%

Recent form · 10 last

Vitoria SC 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLWWLLLDLL

Belenenses 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLLWLWWL

Head-to-head

Vitoria SC 3–1–2 Belenenses (6 last)

Belenenses27-24Vitoria SC
Vitoria SC28-22Belenenses
Belenenses31-24Vitoria SC
Belenenses29-31Vitoria SC
Vitoria SC35-32Belenenses
Belenenses30-30Vitoria SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vitoria SC 1462 · Belenenses 1459

	Vitoria SC	Belenenses
Our model	60%	40%
Market	49%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 58.4 points · Bet365 line 54.5 · +3.9

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points58.4Vitoria SC 28.7 · Belenenses 29.8

Over / Under 54.5Over · 70%recent trend · ~59.1 pts · strength 5

Match keys

H2H favours Vitoria SC: 3-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Vitoria SC	Belenenses
Points F\|A (Last 10)	27.8 / 33.6	27.5 / 30.9
Points F\|A (Last 5)	23.6 / 37	28.8 / 27.2
Est. result	29	30

Est. total58.4

Line O/U54.5

Diff.3.9

Over / Under70% / 30%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.85

X8.00

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 54.51.95

Under 54.51.75

Diff.: 5.4 · Est. total: 59.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10%

Time*	1	X	2
18:10 +10’	1.85	8.00	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Vitoria SC 3–1–2 Belenenses

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/08/26 Portugal Liga Andebol	Belenenses	27-24	Vitoria SC
21/02/26 Portugal Liga Andebol	Vitoria SC	28-22	Belenenses
25/10/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	Belenenses	31-24	Vitoria SC
03/05/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	Belenenses	29-31	Vitoria SC
29/03/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	Vitoria SC	35-32	Belenenses
15/02/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	Belenenses	30-30	Vitoria SC

Standings · Portugal Liga Andebol

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sporting Clube	11	10	0	1	449	304	31
2	FC Porto	10	10	0	0	404	269	30
3	Madeira	11	9	0	2	344	320	29
4	SL Benfica	11	8	0	3	380	307	27
5	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao	11	6	0	5	343	353	23
6	ABC Braga	11	5	0	6	319	344	21
7	Aguas Santas	10	5	0	5	294	293	20
8	Belenenses	11	4	0	7	302	333	19
9	Vitoria SC	11	3	1	7	302	363	18
10	GC Santo Tirso	11	2	0	9	294	364	15
11	AA Avanca	11	1	1	9	265	360	14
12	AD Carvalhos	11	1	0	10	282	368	13

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vitoria SC	Belenenses
SL Benfica	25-37 L	31-35 L
ABC Braga	29-30 L	28-23 W
AA Avanca	20-20 D	26-31 L
Sporting Clube	23-51 L	27-43 L
FC Porto	21-47 L	25-40 L
Povoa Andebol/Bodegao	27-30 L	25-28 L
Aguas Santas	33-29 W	28-31 L
GC Santo Tirso	28-26 W	27-21 W
Madeira	37-38 L	22-26 L
AD Carvalhos	35-28 W	36-31 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 6 L	3 W 0 D 7 L

Better against common opponents: Belenenses (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vitoria SC

WLWWLLLDLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
31/10	SL Benfica Portugal Liga Andebol	25-37	L
25/10	ABC Braga Portugal Liga Andebol	29-30	L
17/10	AA Avanca Portugal Liga Andebol	20-20	D
05/10	Sporting Clube Portugal Liga Andebol	23-51	L
03/10	FC Porto Portugal Liga Andebol	21-47	L
26/09	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao Portugal Liga Andebol	27-30	L
23/09	Aguas Santas Portugal Liga Andebol	33-29	W
19/09	GC Santo Tirso Portugal Liga Andebol	28-26	W
12/09	Madeira Portugal Liga Andebol	37-38	L
05/09	AD Carvalhos Portugal Liga Andebol	35-28	W

Belenenses

LLLLLWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
01/11	Madeira Portugal Liga Andebol	22-26	L
25/10	AD Carvalhos Portugal Liga Andebol	36-31	W
17/10	GC Santo Tirso Portugal Liga Andebol	27-21	W
10/10	SL Benfica Portugal Liga Andebol	31-35	L
03/10	ABC Braga Portugal Liga Andebol	28-23	W
26/09	AA Avanca Portugal Liga Andebol	26-31	L
23/09	Sporting Clube Portugal Liga Andebol	27-43	L
20/09	FC Porto Portugal Liga Andebol	25-40	L
12/09	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao Portugal Liga Andebol	25-28	L
05/09	Aguas Santas Portugal Liga Andebol	28-31	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vitoria SC vs Belenenses?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Vitoria SC 57% · Belenenses 43%).

How many points are expected in Vitoria SC vs Belenenses?

The model estimates 58.4 total points (Vitoria SC 28.7 · Belenenses 29.8).

Over or under 54.5 points?

Recent history points to over 54.5 points (70%).