Handball · Portugal Liga Andebol · 14/11, 16:00

Prediction: Aguas Santas vs SL Benfica

Team pages: Aguas Santas · SL Benfica

Prediction summary

Estimated points

59.6Total

Aguas Santas27.8

SL Benfica31.9

1X2

25% 75%

Aguas Santas SL Benfica

Recent form · 10 last

Aguas Santas 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LWWLLWLLWW

SL Benfica 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WLLWWWWWLW

Head-to-head

Aguas Santas 2–4 SL Benfica (6 last)

SL Benfica34-23Aguas Santas
Aguas Santas25-31SL Benfica
SL Benfica36-22Aguas Santas
Aguas Santas31-28SL Benfica
SL Benfica35-27Aguas Santas
Aguas Santas28-26SL Benfica

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aguas Santas 1470 · SL Benfica 1559

	Aguas Santas	SL Benfica
Our model	47%	53%
Market	9%	85%

Estimated total (ours) 59.6 points · Bet365 line 59.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points59.6Aguas Santas 27.8 · SL Benfica 31.9

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SL Benfica (rating 1470 vs 1559).
SL Benfica is a clear favourite (75% market).
H2H favours SL Benfica: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Aguas Santas	SL Benfica
Points F\|A (Last 10)	29.4 / 29.3	34.6 / 28.4
Points F\|A (Last 5)	30.6 / 29.2	34.4 / 26.2
Est. result	28	32

Est. total59.6

Line O/U59.5

Diff.0.1

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

19.50

X15.00

21.06

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+7.5)1.85

2 (-7.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 59.51.85

Under 59.51.85

Diff.: 1.35 · Est. total: 60.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	9.50 → 9.50	Bet365 9.50
X	15.00 → 15.00	Bet365 15.00
2	1.06 → 1.06	Bet365 1.06

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
18:09 +10’	9.50	15.00	1.06

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Aguas Santas 2–0–4 SL Benfica

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
29/08/26 Portugal Liga Andebol	SL Benfica	34-23	Aguas Santas
02/05/26 Portugal Liga Andebol	Aguas Santas	25-31	SL Benfica
18/04/26 Portugal Cup	SL Benfica	36-22	Aguas Santas
15/04/26 Portugal Cup	Aguas Santas	31-28	SL Benfica
29/03/26 Portugal Liga Andebol	SL Benfica	35-27	Aguas Santas
11/02/26 Portugal Liga Andebol	Aguas Santas	28-26	SL Benfica

Standings · Portugal Liga Andebol

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sporting Clube	11	10	0	1	449	304	31
2	FC Porto	10	10	0	0	404	269	30
3	Madeira	11	9	0	2	344	320	29
4	SL Benfica	11	8	0	3	380	307	27
5	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao	11	6	0	5	343	353	23
6	ABC Braga	11	5	0	6	319	344	21
7	Aguas Santas	10	5	0	5	294	293	20
8	Belenenses	11	4	0	7	302	333	19
9	Vitoria SC	11	3	1	7	302	363	18
10	GC Santo Tirso	11	2	0	9	294	364	15
11	AA Avanca	11	1	1	9	265	360	14
12	AD Carvalhos	11	1	0	10	282	368	13

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aguas Santas	SL Benfica
ABC Braga	23-22 W	39-34 W
AA Avanca	34-24 W	38-20 W
Sporting Clube	28-37 L	27-32 L
Povoa Andebol/Bodegao	30-32 L	37-30 W
GC Santo Tirso	38-31 W	38-21 W
Vitoria SC	29-33 L	37-25 W
Madeira	27-29 L	27-28 L
AD Carvalhos	31-23 W	35-26 W
Belenenses	31-28 W	35-31 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 4 L	7 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: SL Benfica (9 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Aguas Santas

LWWLLWLLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
31/10	ABC Braga Portugal Liga Andebol	23-22	W
24/10	AA Avanca Portugal Liga Andebol	34-24	W
18/10	Sporting Clube Portugal Liga Andebol	28-37	L
03/10	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao Portugal Liga Andebol	30-32	L
26/09	GC Santo Tirso Portugal Liga Andebol	38-31	W
23/09	Vitoria SC Portugal Liga Andebol	29-33	L
19/09	Madeira Portugal Liga Andebol	27-29	L
12/09	AD Carvalhos Portugal Liga Andebol	31-23	W
05/09	Belenenses Portugal Liga Andebol	31-28	W
29/08	SL Benfica Portugal Liga Andebol	23-34	L

SL Benfica

WLLWWWWWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
31/10	Vitoria SC Portugal Liga Andebol	37-25	W
25/10	Madeira Portugal Liga Andebol	27-28	L
19/10	AD Carvalhos Portugal Liga Andebol	35-26	W
10/10	Belenenses Portugal Liga Andebol	35-31	W
03/10	GC Santo Tirso Portugal Liga Andebol	38-21	W
26/09	ABC Braga Portugal Liga Andebol	39-34	W
23/09	AA Avanca Portugal Liga Andebol	38-20	W
19/09	Sporting Clube Portugal Liga Andebol	27-32	L
12/09	FC Porto Portugal Liga Andebol	33-37	L
05/09	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao Portugal Liga Andebol	37-30	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aguas Santas vs SL Benfica?

Our model gives 75% to SL Benfica.

How many points are expected in Aguas Santas vs SL Benfica?

The model estimates 59.6 total points (Aguas Santas 27.8 · SL Benfica 31.9).