Handball · Portugal Liga Andebol · 14/11, 18:00

Prediction: Madeira vs AD Carvalhos

Team pages: Madeira · AD Carvalhos

Prediction summary

Estimated points

60Total

Madeira32.8

AD Carvalhos27.2

1X2

86% 14%

Madeira AD Carvalhos

Markets

Over 56.5 points 70%

Recent form · 10 last

Madeira 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

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AD Carvalhos 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Madeira 1–0 AD Carvalhos (1 last)

AD Carvalhos21-31Madeira

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Madeira 1577 · AD Carvalhos 1397

	Madeira	AD Carvalhos
Our model	81%	19%
Market	84%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 60 points · Bet365 line 56.5 · +3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points60Madeira 32.8 · AD Carvalhos 27.2

Over / Under 56.5Over · 70%recent trend · ~60 pts · strength 4

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Madeira (rating 1577 vs 1397).
Madeira is a clear favourite (86% market).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Madeira	AD Carvalhos
Points F\|A (Last 10)	31.3 / 29.9	26.1 / 33.7
Points F\|A (Last 5)	29.8 / 28.6	26.6 / 30.8
Est. result	33	27

Est. total60

Line O/U56.5

Diff.3.5

Over / Under70% / 30%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.08

X14.00

29.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-6.5)1.75

2 (+6.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 56.51.85

Under 56.51.85

Diff.: 4 · Est. total: 60.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.08 → 1.08	Bet365 1.08
X	14.00 → 14.00	Bet365 14.00
2	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.8%

Time*	1	X	2
18:09 +10’	1.08	14.00	9.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Madeira 1–0–0 AD Carvalhos

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/08/26 Portugal Liga Andebol	AD Carvalhos	21-31	Madeira

Standings · Portugal Liga Andebol

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sporting Clube	11	10	0	1	449	304	31
2	FC Porto	10	10	0	0	404	269	30
3	Madeira	11	9	0	2	344	320	29
4	SL Benfica	11	8	0	3	380	307	27
5	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao	11	6	0	5	343	353	23
6	ABC Braga	11	5	0	6	319	344	21
7	Aguas Santas	10	5	0	5	294	293	20
8	Belenenses	11	4	0	7	302	333	19
9	Vitoria SC	11	3	1	7	302	363	18
10	GC Santo Tirso	11	2	0	9	294	364	15
11	AA Avanca	11	1	1	9	265	360	14
12	AD Carvalhos	11	1	0	10	282	368	13

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Madeira	AD Carvalhos
Sporting Clube	27-41 L	27-44 L
Belenenses	26-22 W	31-36 L
SL Benfica	28-27 W	26-35 L
ABC Braga	32-31 W	26-30 L
AA Avanca	36-22 W	26-25 W
FC Porto	27-35 L	24-40 L
Povoa Andebol/Bodegao	38-37 W	26-33 L
Aguas Santas	29-27 W	23-31 L
Vitoria SC	38-37 W	28-35 L
GC Santo Tirso	32-20 W	24-28 L
Record vs common	8 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 9 L

Better against common opponents: Madeira (10 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Madeira

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
12/11	Sporting Clube Portugal Liga Andebol	27-41	L
01/11	Belenenses Portugal Liga Andebol	26-22	W
25/10	SL Benfica Portugal Liga Andebol	28-27	W
20/10	ABC Braga Portugal Liga Andebol	32-31	W
10/10	AA Avanca Portugal Liga Andebol	36-22	W
27/09	FC Porto Portugal Liga Andebol	27-35	L
23/09	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao Portugal Liga Andebol	38-37	W
19/09	Aguas Santas Portugal Liga Andebol	29-27	W
12/09	Vitoria SC Portugal Liga Andebol	38-37	W
05/09	GC Santo Tirso Portugal Liga Andebol	32-20	W

AD Carvalhos

LLLLLWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
31/10	GC Santo Tirso Portugal Liga Andebol	24-28	L
25/10	Belenenses Portugal Liga Andebol	31-36	L
19/10	SL Benfica Portugal Liga Andebol	26-35	L
10/10	ABC Braga Portugal Liga Andebol	26-30	L
05/10	AA Avanca Portugal Liga Andebol	26-25	W
26/09	Sporting Clube Portugal Liga Andebol	27-44	L
23/09	FC Porto Portugal Liga Andebol	24-40	L
19/09	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao Portugal Liga Andebol	26-33	L
12/09	Aguas Santas Portugal Liga Andebol	23-31	L
05/09	Vitoria SC Portugal Liga Andebol	28-35	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Madeira vs AD Carvalhos?

Our model gives 86% to Madeira.

How many points are expected in Madeira vs AD Carvalhos?

The model estimates 60 total points (Madeira 32.8 · AD Carvalhos 27.2).

Over or under 56.5 points?

Recent history points to over 56.5 points (70%).