Handball · Portugal Liga Andebol · 02/10, 18:00

Prediction: Madeira vs Sporting Clube

Team pages: Madeira · Sporting Clube

Prediction summary

Estimated points

65.5Total

Madeira30.2

Sporting Clube35.3

1X2

21% 79%

Madeira Sporting Clube

Recent form · 10 last

Madeira 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWWL

Sporting Clube 10-0-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWWW

Head-to-head

Madeira 0–6 Sporting Clube (6 last)

Sporting Clube42-28Madeira
Madeira37-40Sporting Clube
Sporting Clube41-31Madeira
Madeira29-36Sporting Clube
Madeira23-32Sporting Clube
Sporting Clube35-24Madeira

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Madeira 1549 · Sporting Clube 1665

	Madeira	Sporting Clube
Our model	43%	57%
Market	5%	90%

Estimated total (ours) 65.5 points · Bet365 line 68.5 · -3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points65.5Madeira 30.2 · Sporting Clube 35.3

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sporting Clube (rating 1549 vs 1665).
Sporting Clube is a clear favourite (79% market).
H2H favours Sporting Clube: 6-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Madeira	Sporting Clube
Points F\|A (Last 10)	32.9 / 29.7	39.2 / 26.9
Points F\|A (Last 5)	32.8 / 31.2	39.8 / 27.6
Est. result	30	35

Est. total65.5

Line O/U68.5

Diff.3

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

117.00

X20.00

21.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+11.5)1.85

2 (-11.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 68.51.85

Under 68.51.85

Diff.: 4.15 · Est. total: 64.35

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 15:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	21.00 → 17.00▼	Bet365 17.00
X	25.00 → 20.00▼	Bet365 20.00
2	1.00 → 1.00▲	Bet365 1.00

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
22:55 +2’	21.00	25.00	1.00
15:09 +2’	40.00▲	40.00▲	1.00
18:12 +9’	22.00▼	25.00▼	1.00
12:18 +3’	22.00	28.00▲	1.00
15:12 +11’	17.00▼	20.00▼	1.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Madeira 0–0–6 Sporting Clube

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Portugal Cup	Sporting Clube	42-28	Madeira
15/04/26 Portugal Cup	Madeira	37-40	Sporting Clube
23/11/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	Sporting Clube	41-31	Madeira
03/09/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	Madeira	29-36	Sporting Clube
24/05/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	Madeira	23-32	Sporting Clube
05/04/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	Sporting Clube	35-24	Madeira

Standings · Portugal Liga Andebol

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sporting Clube	6	6	0	245	161	18
2	FC Porto	6	6	0	233	153	18
3	Madeira	6	5	1	195	177	16
4	SL Benfica	6	4	2	208	176	14
5	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao	6	3	3	189	185	12
6	Vitoria SC	6	3	3	184	178	12
7	ABC Braga	6	3	3	183	206	12
8	Aguas Santas	6	3	3	179	178	12
9	AA Avanca	6	1	5	150	215	8
10	GC Santo Tirso	6	1	5	166	199	8
11	Belenenses	6	1	5	158	197	8
12	AD Carvalhos	6	0	6	149	214	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Madeira	Sporting Clube
FC Porto	27-35 L	36-29 W
Aguas Santas	29-27 W	37-29 W
GC Santo Tirso	32-20 W	37-25 W
AD Carvalhos	31-21 W	44-27 W
ABC Braga	37-33 W	43-32 W
Belenenses	32-30 W	43-27 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 1 L	6 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Sporting Clube (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Madeira

WWWWWWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
27/09	FC Porto Portugal Liga Andebol	27-35	L
23/09	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao Portugal Liga Andebol	38-37	W
19/09	Aguas Santas Portugal Liga Andebol	29-27	W
12/09	Vitoria SC Portugal Liga Andebol	38-37	W
05/09	GC Santo Tirso Portugal Liga Andebol	32-20	W
29/08	AD Carvalhos Portugal Liga Andebol	31-21	W
23/05	ABC Braga Portugal Liga Andebol	37-33	W
10/05	Belenenses Portugal Liga Andebol	32-30	W
03/05	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao Portugal Liga Andebol	35-30	W
26/04	ABC Braga Portugal Liga Andebol	30-27	W

Sporting Clube

WWWWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
26/09	AD Carvalhos Portugal Liga Andebol	44-27	W
23/09	Belenenses Portugal Liga Andebol	43-27	W
19/09	SL Benfica Portugal Liga Andebol	32-27	W
13/09	ABC Braga Portugal Liga Andebol	43-32	W
29/08	GC Santo Tirso Portugal Liga Andebol	37-25	W
26/08	AA Avanca Portugal Liga Andebol	46-23	W
23/05	SL Benfica Portugal Liga Andebol	34-22	W
09/05	Aguas Santas Portugal Liga Andebol	37-29	W
02/05	FC Porto Portugal Liga Andebol	36-29	W
24/04	SL Benfica Portugal Liga Andebol	40-28	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Madeira vs Sporting Clube?

Our model gives 79% to Sporting Clube.

How many points are expected in Madeira vs Sporting Clube?

The model estimates 65.5 total points (Madeira 30.2 · Sporting Clube 35.3).