Handball · Portugal 1st Div Women · 20/09, 18:00
Prediction: Cale (W) vs Madeira SAD (W)
Team pages: Cale (W) · Madeira SAD (W)
Prediction summary
Estimated points
51.1Total
Cale (W)23.9
Madeira SAD (W)27.3
1X2
Cale (W)
Madeira SAD (W)
Markets
Over 46.5 points 75%
Recent form · 10 last
Cale (W)
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Madeira SAD (W)
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cale (W)
0–3
Madeira SAD (W)
(3 last)
- Cale (W)25-33Madeira SAD (W)
- Madeira SAD (W)38-21Cale (W)
- Cale (W)20-22Madeira SAD (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cale (W) 1474 · Madeira SAD (W) 1564
| Cale (W) | Madeira SAD (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 53% |
| Market | 11% | 82% |
Estimated total (ours)
51.1 points · Bet365 line 46.5 · +4.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points51.1Cale (W) 23.9 · Madeira SAD (W) 27.3
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Madeira SAD (W) (rating 1474 vs 1564).
- Madeira SAD (W) is a clear favourite (74% market).
- H2H favours Madeira SAD (W): 3-0.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Cale (W) | Madeira SAD (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 24.5 / 24.9 | 27.9 / 25.5 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 26.2 / 25.2 | 26 / 23.6 |
| Est. result | 24 | 27 |
Est. total51.1
Line O/U46.5
Diff.4.6
Over / Under75% / 25%
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cale (W) 0–0–3 Madeira SAD (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04/26 Portugal Cup Women | Cale (W) | 25-33 | Madeira SAD (W) |
| 01/02/26 Portugal 1st Div Women | Madeira SAD (W) | 38-21 | Cale (W) |
| 01/11/25 Portugal 1st Div Women | Cale (W) | 20-22 | Madeira SAD (W) |
Standings · Portugal 1st Div Women
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SL Benfica (W) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 181 | 103 | 15 |
| 2 | Madeira SAD (W) | 4 | 3 | 1 | 105 | 83 | 10 |
| 3 | ABC Braga (W) | 4 | 3 | 1 | 93 | 91 | 10 |
| 4 | CD Gil Eanes (W) | 4 | 2 | 2 | 115 | 115 | 8 |
| 5 | Almeida Garrett (W) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 79 | 71 | 7 |
| 6 | Alavarium ACA (W) | 4 | 1 | 3 | 104 | 119 | 6 |
| 7 | Juve Lis (W) | 4 | 1 | 3 | 83 | 106 | 6 |
| 8 | Cale (W) | 3 | 1 | 2 | 67 | 69 | 5 |
| 9 | Academia S. Pedro Sul (W) | 3 | 1 | 2 | 66 | 86 | 5 |
| 10 | CD Feirense (W) | 4 | 0 | 4 | 83 | 133 | 4 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cale (W) | Madeira SAD (W) |
|---|---|---|
| CD Gil Eanes (W) | 28-32 L | 32-30 W |
| ABC Braga (W) | 20-21 L | 28-20 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 0 D 2 L | 2 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Madeira SAD (W) (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cale (W)
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | CD Gil Eanes (W) Portugal 1st Div Women |
28-32 | L |
| 05/09 | ABC Braga (W) Portugal 1st Div Women |
20-21 | L |
| 29/08 | Juve Lis (W) Portugal 1st Div Women |
19-16 | W |
| 23/05 | Colegio Gaia (W) Portugal 1st Div Women |
29-27 | W |
| 16/05 | CS Madeira (W) Portugal 1st Div Women |
35-30 | W |
| 09/05 | Juve Lis (W) Portugal 1st Div Women |
24-27 | L |
| 18/04 | Colegio Gaia (W) Portugal 1st Div Women |
26-18 | W |
| 29/03 | CS Madeira (W) Portugal 1st Div Women |
27-24 | W |
| 21/03 | Juve Lis (W) Portugal 1st Div Women |
18-22 | L |
| 14/02 | CD Gil Eanes (W) Portugal 1st Div Women |
19-32 | L |
Madeira SAD (W)
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09 | SL Benfica (W) Portugal 1st Div Women |
19-31 | L |
| 12/09 | Academia S. Pedro Sul (W) Portugal 1st Div Women |
33-15 | W |
| 06/09 | Alavarium ACA (W) Portugal 1st Div Women |
31-23 | W |
| 30/08 | Almeida Garrett (W) Portugal 1st Div Women |
22-14 | W |
| 04/06 | SL Benfica (W) Portugal 1st Div Women |
25-35 | L |
| 28/05 | ABC Braga (W) Portugal 1st Div Women |
28-20 | W |
| 23/05 | Almeida Garrett (W) Portugal 1st Div Women |
41-28 | W |
| 16/05 | Academia S. Pedro Sul (W) Portugal 1st Div Women |
28-27 | W |
| 09/05 | CD Gil Eanes (W) Portugal 1st Div Women |
32-30 | W |
| 25/04 | SL Benfica (W) Portugal 1st Div Women |
20-32 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cale (W) vs Madeira SAD (W)?
Our model gives 74% to Madeira SAD (W).
How many points are expected in Cale (W) vs Madeira SAD (W)?
The model estimates 51.1 total points (Cale (W) 23.9 · Madeira SAD (W) 27.3).