Handball · Spain Liga Asobal · 13/11, 21:00

Prediction: Villa De Aranda vs BM Nava

Team pages: Villa De Aranda · BM Nava

Prediction summary

Estimated points

65.3Total

Villa De Aranda33

BM Nava32.3

1X2

60% 40%

Villa De Aranda BM Nava

Markets

Over 62.5 points 65%

Recent form · 10 last

Villa De Aranda 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LWDLLLLLDW

BM Nava 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WWLLLLWLDL

Head-to-head

Villa De Aranda 4–1–1 BM Nava (6 last)

BM Nava32-33Villa De Aranda
BM Nava32-32Villa De Aranda
Villa De Aranda29-25BM Nava
BM Nava27-28Villa De Aranda
Villa De Aranda31-34BM Nava
Villa De Aranda18-11BM Nava

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Villa De Aranda 1483 · BM Nava 1474

	Villa De Aranda	BM Nava
Our model	61%	39%
Market	53%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 65.3 points · Bet365 line 62.5 · +2.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points65.3Villa De Aranda 33 · BM Nava 32.3

Over / Under 62.5Over · 65%recent trend · ~66.6 pts · strength 4

Match keys

H2H favours Villa De Aranda: 4-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Villa De Aranda	BM Nava
Points F\|A (Last 10)	30 / 33.1	31.7 / 34.1
Points F\|A (Last 5)	30 / 33.4	33 / 36.4
Est. result	33	32

Est. total65.3

Line O/U62.5

Diff.2.8

Over / Under65% / 35%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.80

X8.50

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 62.51.78

Under 62.52.00

Diff.: 1.95 · Est. total: 64.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 5.8%

Time*	1	X	2
16:40 +36’	1.80	8.50	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Villa De Aranda 4–1–1 BM Nava

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/08/26 Club Friendlies	BM Nava	32-33	Villa De Aranda
08/02/26 Spain Liga Asobal	BM Nava	32-32	Villa De Aranda
14/09/25 Spain Liga Asobal	Villa De Aranda	29-25	BM Nava
07/03/25 Spain Liga Asobal	BM Nava	27-28	Villa De Aranda
13/10/24 Spain Liga Asobal	Villa De Aranda	31-34	BM Nava
17/08/24 Club Friendlies	Villa De Aranda	18-11	BM Nava

Standings · Spain Liga Asobal

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Barcelona	8	8	0	0	325	221	16
2	Bidasoa Irun	8	8	0	0	283	243	16
3	Atletico Valladolid	8	6	1	1	265	232	13
4	BM Logrono La Rioja	8	5	2	1	275	265	12
5	BM Torrelavega	8	5	1	2	250	223	11
6	BM Granollers	8	5	1	2	263	255	11
7	Caserio Ciudad Real	8	3	2	3	239	254	8
8	Ademar Leon	8	3	0	5	280	283	6
9	BM Triana	8	3	0	5	253	268	6
10	Ciudad Encantada	8	2	2	4	260	279	6
11	CMB Sporting Alicante	8	3	0	5	239	265	6
12	Puerto Sagunto	8	2	1	5	237	240	5
13	Villa De Aranda	8	1	2	5	238	270	4
14	Angel Ximenez-Puente Genil	8	1	1	6	230	266	3
15	BM Nava	8	1	1	6	242	288	3
16	BM Cangas	8	1	0	7	252	279	2

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Villa De Aranda	BM Nava
Puerto Sagunto	27-27 D	24-39 L
Ademar Leon	35-40 L	38-36 W
BM Torrelavega	21-28 L	19-33 L
Bidasoa Irun	32-39 L	25-35 L
Atletico Valladolid	26-34 L	35-35 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 4 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Villa De Aranda (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Villa De Aranda

LWDLLLLLDW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
31/10	Angel Ximenez-Puente Genil Spain Liga Asobal	34-32	W
24/10	Puerto Sagunto Spain Liga Asobal	27-27	D
16/10	Ademar Leon Spain Liga Asobal	35-40	L
11/10	FC Barcelona Spain Liga Asobal	33-40	L
03/10	BM Torrelavega Spain Liga Asobal	21-28	L
26/09	Bidasoa Irun Spain Liga Asobal	32-39	L
19/09	Atletico Valladolid Spain Liga Asobal	26-34	L
13/09	Caserio Ciudad Real Spain Liga Asobal	30-30	D
30/05	Ademar Leon Spain Liga Asobal	35-33	W
22/05	Angel Ximenez-Puente Genil Spain Liga Asobal	27-28	L

BM Nava

WWLLLLWLDL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
31/10	Ciudad Encantada Spain Liga Asobal	34-37	L
24/10	Atletico Valladolid Spain Liga Asobal	35-35	D
17/10	Puerto Sagunto Spain Liga Asobal	24-39	L
10/10	Ademar Leon Spain Liga Asobal	38-36	W
03/10	BM Triana Spain Liga Asobal	34-35	L
26/09	BM Logrono La Rioja Spain Liga Asobal	33-38	L
19/09	BM Torrelavega Spain Liga Asobal	19-33	L
12/09	Bidasoa Irun Spain Liga Asobal	25-35	L
13/06	Agustinos Alicante Spain Liga Asobal	41-28	W
10/06	Agustinos Alicante Spain Liga Asobal	34-25	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Villa De Aranda vs BM Nava?

Our model gives 60% to Villa De Aranda.

How many points are expected in Villa De Aranda vs BM Nava?

The model estimates 65.3 total points (Villa De Aranda 33 · BM Nava 32.3).

Over or under 62.5 points?

Recent history points to over 62.5 points (65%).