Handball · Denmark 1st Division · 14/11, 16:00

Prediction: HOJ Elite vs AGF Aarhus

Prediction summary

Estimated points

59.1Total

HOJ Elite33.4

AGF Aarhus25.7

1X2

92% 8%

HOJ Elite AGF Aarhus

Recent form · 10 last

HOJ Elite 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WLWWWWWWWW

AGF Aarhus 0-0-10 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLLLL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HOJ Elite 1581 · AGF Aarhus 1396

	HOJ Elite	AGF Aarhus
Our model	81%	19%
Market	96%	2%

Estimated total (ours) 59.1 points · Bet365 line 60.5 · -1.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points59.1HOJ Elite 33.4 · AGF Aarhus 25.7

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours HOJ Elite (rating 1581 vs 1396).
HOJ Elite is a clear favourite (92% market).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	HOJ Elite	AGF Aarhus
Points F\|A (Last 10)	33.9 / 27.5	25.4 / 32
Points F\|A (Last 5)	35 / 28.4	25.6 / 33.2
Est. result	33	26

Est. total59.1

Line O/U60.5

Diff.1.4

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.00

X45.00

260.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-13.5)1.85

2 (+13.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 60.51.85

Under 60.51.85

Diff.: 1.1 · Est. total: 59.4

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 21:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.00 → 1.00	Bet365 1.00
X	45.00 → 45.00	Bet365 45.00
2	50.00 → 60.00▲	Bet365 60.00

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 3.8%

Time*	1	X	2
10:28 +49’	1.00	45.00	50.00
13:13 +3’	1.00	45.00	55.00▲
20:47 +30’	1.00	45.00	60.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Denmark 1st Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	HOJ Elite	10	9	0	1	339	275	18
2	HC Midtjylland	11	9	0	2	347	323	18
3	TM Tonder	10	8	0	2	319	276	16
4	Team Sydhavsoerne	11	7	0	4	347	315	14
5	Elitesport Vendsyssel	10	6	1	3	294	296	13
6	Norddjurs Handbold	10	6	0	4	333	303	12
7	Aarhus HC	11	6	0	5	342	336	12
8	Rækker Mølle	10	5	0	5	303	299	10
9	Grindsted GIF	10	4	1	5	302	293	9
10	Lemvig-Thyboran	10	4	1	5	302	300	9
11	Koge	10	3	0	7	292	310	6
12	Odder Handbold	10	2	1	7	312	351	5
13	Stoholm Håndbold	11	1	0	10	283	372	2
14	AGF Aarhus	10	0	0	10	254	320	0

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HOJ Elite	AGF Aarhus
Team Sydhavsoerne	31-29 W	26-29 L
Stoholm Håndbold	38-24 W	25-31 L
Grindsted GIF	32-28 W	24-29 L
Norddjurs Handbold	37-35 W	24-40 L
Elitesport Vendsyssel	37-26 W	25-29 L
TM Tonder	31-28 W	21-28 L
Koge	29-20 W	29-33 L
Odder Handbold	38-26 W	25-35 L
Rækker Mølle	34-37 L	26-29 L
Record vs common	8 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 9 L

Better against common opponents: HOJ Elite (8 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HOJ Elite

WLWWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
30/10	Team Sydhavsoerne Denmark 1st Division	31-29	W
23/10	Stoholm Håndbold Denmark 1st Division	38-24	W
18/10	Grindsted GIF Denmark 1st Division	32-28	W
10/10	Norddjurs Handbold Denmark 1st Division	37-35	W
03/10	Elitesport Vendsyssel Denmark 1st Division	37-26	W
27/09	TM Tonder Denmark 1st Division	31-28	W
18/09	Koge Denmark 1st Division	29-20	W
10/09	Odder Handbold Denmark 1st Division	38-26	W
03/09	Rækker Mølle Denmark 1st Division	34-37	L
29/08	Aarhus HC Denmark 1st Division	32-22	W

AGF Aarhus

LLLLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
30/10	Lemvig-Thyboran Denmark 1st Division	29-37	L
24/10	Team Sydhavsoerne Denmark 1st Division	26-29	L
16/10	Stoholm Håndbold Denmark 1st Division	25-31	L
10/10	Grindsted GIF Denmark 1st Division	24-29	L
04/10	Norddjurs Handbold Denmark 1st Division	24-40	L
27/09	Elitesport Vendsyssel Denmark 1st Division	25-29	L
20/09	TM Tonder Denmark 1st Division	21-28	L
12/09	Koge Denmark 1st Division	29-33	L
06/09	Odder Handbold Denmark 1st Division	25-35	L
29/08	Rækker Mølle Denmark 1st Division	26-29	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HOJ Elite vs AGF Aarhus?

Our model gives 92% to HOJ Elite.

How many points are expected in HOJ Elite vs AGF Aarhus?

The model estimates 59.1 total points (HOJ Elite 33.4 · AGF Aarhus 25.7).